VOTE TREND RUNNING AGAINST PROP. 93 (TERM LIMITS) AND IN FAVOR OF PROPS. 94-97 (INDIAN GAMING).
4 February 2008BY MARK DiCAMILLO AND MERVIN FIELD
The Field Report
Up until last week, most of the heavy political campaign messages appearing on TV in California have dealt with not the presidential election but the controversial ballot measures, Prop. 93 (Term Limits) and Props. 94-97 (Indian Gaming), that will also appear on tomorrow’s election ballot. These extensive advertising efforts have resulted in high voter awareness of the propositions, with about four out of five likely voters now professing to know something about each measure.
The latest Field Poll finds that as voter awareness has increased over the past two months opinions have changed. Voters are becoming increasingly negative about Prop. 93, the term limits reform initiative, while at the same time they have become more positive about Props. 94-97, the Indian gaming referendums.
In a survey completed in the closing days of the election campaign, 46% of likely voters now say they will be voting No on Prop. 93, while just 33% are intending to vote Yes. Another 21% are undecided about the term limits reform initiative. Last December Prop. 93 was leading by 50% to 32%, while a mid-January Field Poll found voters dividing evenly 39% Yes and 39% No.
Conversely, the relatively small plurality of voters favoring Props. 94-97 in earlier surveys increased in the campaign’s final week. Statewide, 47% of likely voters are now inclined to vote Yes on the four Indian gaming referendums, while 34% are on the No side.
This 13-point Yes side advantage is up from earlier five and six percentage point leads in December and mid-January.
Prop. 93 sub-group differences
By large margins, Republicans and non-partisans are increasingly lining up against Prop. 93. Opposition to Prop. 93 among Republican voters is now running two and one-half to one (56% No and 27% Yes). Non-partisans are also opposed but by a narrower 42% to 32% margin. Democrats are now about evenly divided, 37% Yes and 39% No.
The No side is leading in all the major population areas in the state, among both men and women, and among voters in all age categories.
Voters who describe themselves as strongly conservative are opposed two to one (57% to 28%). Moderate conservatives and moderates are also opposed, but by narrower twelve- to fifteen-point margins. Voters who describe themselves as strongly liberal are backing Prop. 93 by a 46% to 34% margin, although those who say they are moderately liberal are opposed 43% to 36%.
Voters who have already sent in their ballots or intend to vote by mail are opposing Prop. 93 by a wide 51% to 32% margin. Those intending to vote at their voting precincts on Election Day are also on the No side, but by a smaller 42% to 33% margin.
Props. 94-97 sub-group differences
Democrats are now favoring the four Indian gaming referendums by eleven points (45% to 34%), and Republicans are backing them by eighteen points (51% to 33%). Non-partisans are narrowly supportive, 45% Yes and 37% No.
There are big differences in sentiment according to where voters live. In the vote-heavy Southern California regions where the Indian casinos in these referendums are located, voters are favoring the measures by large margins. However, voters in the San Francisco Bay Area are opposed 44% to 36%.
Both men and women are in favor of Props. 94-97, although men are backing them by a larger margin. Middle-of-the-roaders are voting Yes by a five to three margin (49% to 29%). Strong and moderate conservatives also favor the referendums by thirteen and ten points, respectively. Liberals are only narrowly on the Yes side.
Precinct voters are very much in favor of Props. 94-97, 50% to 30%. Mail ballot voters are also in favor, but by a smaller 45% to 38% margin.
In previous surveys, The Field Poll had found that voters were about evenly split on the fundamental question of whether Indian gaming should be expanded in California. Now, more voters favor its expansion in general than are opposed, 44% to 38%. Voters who line up in support of casino expansion overwhelmingly favor Props. 94-97, while voters opposed are opposing the referendums greater than four to one.
See Related: FIELD POLL
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