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Sensual San Francisco intertwines exotic Tuscany in local novel like upgraded Sex and The City

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THE ITALIAN CONNECTION — Author Jill St. Anne, left, surrendered to the seduction of Italian food, fashion, and handsome men twenty years ago and brings the throb to heart in release of spy thriller The Italian Connection, set in San Francisco and Tuscany. St. Anne seen last night with San Francisco book signing fans. Judy Fairchild, right, celebrated her own birthday at the event, recalling daughter St. Anne’s early years when St. Anne devoured Nancy Drew mysteries and promptly rewrote them… for improvement, at eight years of age

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By Pat Murphy
Sentinel Editor & Publisher
Copyright © 2007 San Francisco Sentinel

The bold, the beautiful, and the deadliest of bad guys, wage a modern day spy thriller between exotic Tuscany and sensual San Francisco now luxuriating off the pages of Jill St. Anne’s second novel — The Italian Connection.

Italians, more beautiful than they have any right to be, and San Franciscans more sensuous than the world dare utter, come to world-saving life from St. Anne’s memory of her first trip to Italy with friend Susan Jarolim who blends into leading character Christina. “Everybody thinks Christina is me, she’s not, she’s my friend Susan,” St. Anne confided to the Sentinel.

Jill St. Anne is the pen name for Jill Zajicek Wickersham, who received award for investigative journalism while in college.

San Francisco misty intrique combines with lush beaches of Tuscany to read like today’s version of Sex and The City, with Christina the modern day Nancy Drew.

“The thriller part is that the main character comes into possession with this microchip that is used to activate an arsenal of anti-ballistic missles,” continued St. Anne.

“So it’s very timely actually because this is what’s going on in North Korea, this is what’s going on in China.

“What happens is that the bad guys chase down Christina, because they know she has the microchip, knowing that if they were able to get ahold of the microchip they would be able to disarm our military.”

The seduction of both cities, and their people, intertwine with the caper.

“It is a romance but it’s very serious as well. With the cars, the food, the fashion, and the handsome men.”

St. Anne, of course, arrived in lastest model Italian Ferrari.

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Event host Claudia Ross, left, emceed the gathering with fashion connoisseur Sophie Azouaou also welcoming St. Anne’s mother Judy Fairchild, right.

Leading San Francisco Italiana were represented by Alioto clan frontliner Joe Alioto Veronese and wife Laura Veronese.

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San Francisco Police Commissioner Joe Alioto Veronese and wife Laura ushered a path by Claudia Ross, at left

Exacting bon vivants attended nodding approval.

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From left, Claude Hubert, Chip Zecher, Michael Mulcahy, and Holly Baxter

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Mark Calvano, right, makes the party in between launching men’s fashion wear for gentlemen born to center stage

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The Italian Connection is available online, cover designed by discerning mother Judy Fairchild

In the end, Christina takes a gamble that puts her own life on the line. She discovers her inner strength and learns that in love, a woman’s intuition is seldom wrong.

Last night, St. Anne captured intuition of locals who sense winners.

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Pat Murphy and Sophie Azouaou with Judy Fairchild

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Fast Pass airport security system coming to San Francisco

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SFO Director John Martin detailed faster flight boarding availability set to begin in October with prior submission to screening
Photos by John Han

By Pat Murphy
Sentinel Editor & Publisher
Copyright © 2007 San Francisco Sentinel

Frequent flyers, or merely those not at home with public exhibition of their socks, can look forward to less intrusive and faster security checks at San Francisco International Airport.

Starting in October, City officials projected yesterday, the hurried and the deadly shy can reduce their pre-flight gendarme once-over from some six minutes to as short as 30 seconds.

Such fast pass service, now available in five American cities, requires annual submission to a background check, retina scan or thumb print, and processing fee of $99, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom reported Wednesday.

Even now, San Francisco beats the national average for security clearance, the mayor noted.

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Mayor Gavin Newsom

Passing through SFO security checks now takes on average 2.4 minutes compared to national average of 4.2 delay six minutes, he said. Local peak time national average is 16 minutes, more than twice San Francisco average of six minutes.

Even so, with three new airlines soon to service SFO — JetBlue, Virgin and Southwest — increased passenger load could come with added security delays

Newsom and Martin met with reporters in the International Room of City hall at 12:30 p.m. to announce local fast pass availability.

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Newsom and Martin with, at left, Nate Ballard, mayoral press secretary, during roundtable presentation

Known as the Registered Traveler Program, some 4,000 flyers have signed up for the program now operating at Mineta San Jose International Airport.

See Related: ENROLLMENT STATIONS open for San Francisco flyer Fast Pass

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California voters approve of state law combating global warming

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California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger delivered keynote address yesterday on state efforts to combat global warming. Schwarzenegger spoke at Georgetown University in Washington, DC for Newsweek’s Global Environmental Leadership Conference. The governor earlier met with federal officials to speed regulation of automobile emissions reduction.
Photo by William Foster, Office of Governor Schwarzenegger

By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

California voters see global warming as a serious problem. Voters here give very negative ratings to the job the federal government is doing in handling the issue, but are not as critical of the way the state government is dealing with the problem.

There is strong support for a new state law, passed last year by the state legislature and signed with considerable fanfare by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, requiring California to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases by 25% by the year 2020.

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San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, left, welcomes California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to Treasure Island September 28, 2006, for signing ceremony of state legislation requiring reduced carbon emissions. Photos by Bill Wilson

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However, there is a sharp division of opinion as to the best way to achieve the goal of a twenty five percent reduction in emissions. Almost half of the public (45%) support establishing a trading system to enable companies that can’t reduce their emissions by the required amount to pay other companies to exceed their cutback totals. On the other hand, an almost equal proportion (41%) favors requiring all major companies to make a uniform, across-the-board twenty-five percent cutback in emissions. These are the findings from the latest Field Poll completed late last month.

Seriousness of the problem
Eight out of ten California voters (81%) describe global warming as a very serious (56%) or somewhat serious (25%) problem. Just one in six (17%) maintain that it is not a serious problem.

Democrats, non-partisans, liberals, middle-of-the-road voters, women, younger Californians under age 40, and voters in Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area are more likely than others to say the global warming issue is very serious.

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Job approval ratings of the federal and state governments
Just one in five California voters (21%) approve of the job that the federal government is doing
in dealing with the global warming problem, while more than three times as many (66% disapprove.

Voters are not as critical of the performance of the state government in this area. At present, forty three percent approve of the state government’s efforts in dealing with this problem, while a like percentage (43%) disapprove.

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Views about the new state law reducing emissions
Last year Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature passed a law requiring that California reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases by 25% by the year 2020.

When voters are asked about this action, a large majority (79%) approves (55% strongly approving and 24% favoring somewhat). This compared to just 17% who disapprove.

Democrats, non-partisans, liberals, middle-of-the-roaders and voters in the San Francisco Bay Area are more likely than other voters to back the new law strongly.

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Trading system vs. uniform cuts?
One way to implement the state’s requirement for greenhouse gas reductions would be to set up a trading system allowing firms that can’t reduce their emissions by the required amount to pay other companies to exceed their cutback totals, thereby achieving a net 25% reduction across all companies. Another alternative would be to impose a uniform 25% cutback across-the-board for all companies. When asked which alternative they preferred, voters are about evenly divided, with 45% favoring the trading system and 41% opting for the uniform, across-the-board cut.

Unlike other elements of the global warming issue, there is not much difference in opinions by partisanship, ideology, gender or age, although more voters in the San Francisco Bay Area are supportive of the trading system than voters elsewhere in the state.

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Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) Chief Executive Office Tom King with signature on green emissions bill

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A pleased Charlotte Schultz, Chief of Protocol for both the State of California and for the City and County of San Francisco, following signing ceremony.

See Related: FIELD REPORT

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Disabled access to Golden Gate Park Kennedy Drive to be expanded

From the Mayor’s Office of Communications

Mayor Newsom and Supervisor McGoldrick today announced that disabled access has been expanded to John F. Kennedy Drive in Golden Gate Park during its weekly Sunday closure to vehicles. These improvements are being made in order to comply with the American Disability Act (ADA) and legislation sponsored by Supervisor McGoldrick, passed by the Board of Supervisors and signed by the Mayor last year.

Disabled access improvements that have been made include: 1) Posting of signs outside the closure area that identify nearby disabled-accessible parking and provide directions to the underground garage below the Music Concourse; 2) the addition of 10 accessible parking spaces created adjacent or nearby the closure, and eight more parking spaces pending approval by the Municipal Transportation Agency; and 3) the establishment of car drop-off zones under Concourse garage, at McLaren Lodge and at Bowling Green Drive next to JFK Drive.

This week, the City will commence with the bid process to secure two permanent trams that will drive the length of the closure and provide access to the entire closure area for park users with disabilities. Until these trams are procured by the City, the Mayor’s Office is working to secure interim vehicles to provide near-term access to this closure.

The Mayor’s Office of Disability will monitor the completion of these improvements in the coming days and weeks.

Mayor Newsom expressed satisfaction that these accessibility improvements were moving forward quickly: “Simply put, JFK Drive must be accessible to all residents and visitors so that everyone can enjoy it equally. These state-of-the-art trams will provide a level of accessibility that can serve as a model to other cities that want to increase access to recreational street closures.”

Supervisor McGoldrick commented, “I am delighted that park visitors with disabilities will enjoy better access to the wonderful recreational and cultural activities in the Eastern end of Golden Gate Park.”

Mayor Newsom, in reflecting on discussions about alternatives to the current Saturday closure proposal said that “both the supporters and opponents of the current Saturday closure proposal deserve credit for sitting down with open minds to explore alternatives. I am committed to ensuring that any alternatives that are explored guarantee the level of disabled access that has been developed for the current Sunday closure.”

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Schwarzenegger in Washington to speed California regulation of auto emissions

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California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger delivering keynote address for Newsweek’s Global Environmental Leadership Conference today at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.
Photo by William Foster, Office of Governor Schwarzenegger

WASHINGTON, DC — Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger today met with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Stephen Johnson in to push California ‘s request for a federal waiver to restrict auto emissions.

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling saying that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has the authority to regulate greenhouse gases, which led the agency to take steps toward reviving California ‘s petition for a waiver.

“Last week’s Supreme Court ruling opened the door for California to move forward in setting our own strict vehicle emission standards to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Governor Schwarzenegger.

“Today, I am calling on the federal government to expedite our request for a waiver which will allow us to carry on the fight against global warming. Californians want to be free to protect the environment and we deserve nothing less.

“With technology that exists today, California ‘s vehicle emissions standards are eminently achievable — It is not a matter a technological ability, it’s a matter of political will.”

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Schwarzenegger on Treasure Island for signing of September 28, 2006, state legislation regulating carbon emissions to combat global warming.
Photo by Bill Wilson

To participate in the meeting, Governor Schwarzenegger invited former Assemblymember Fran Pavley who authored California ‘s landmark legislation in 2002 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles on which the federal waiver request is based. Linda Adams, California’s Secretary for Environmental Protection also attended.

Under the federal Clean Air Act, California has the right to set its own vehicle emission standards, and other states have the right to adopt the California standards as their own. Ten other states have adopted California ‘s vehicle emissions standards including: Vermont , New York , New Jersey , Massachusetts , Connecticut , Maine , Rhode Island , Pennsylvania , Washington and Oregon . New Mexico , Arizona and Maryland are in the process of adopting California ‘s standards.

On December 21, 2005 , the California Air Resources Board (ARB) requested a waiver of federal preemption of California ‘s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards. The waiver would allow California to enact emissions standards to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles. The waiver was requested after the ARB developed regulations based on the 2002 California law. In addition to the waiver being stalled in the federal process, the law faces a legal challenge by automakers.

In letters sent on April 10, 2006 and October 24, 2006 to President Bush, the Governor reiterated the urgency of approving California ‘s request to address global warming.

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Photo by Bill Wilson

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San Francisco 49ers forecast stadium would boost Santa Clara economy by hundreds of millions

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A consultant hired by the San Francisco 49ers painted a rosy picture Tuesday night for the Santa Clara City Council about the economic impact that a stadium would bring to the city.

“A new stadium would create thousands of jobs, generate hundreds of millions in economic activity each year, and enhance the quality of life in the economy,” consultant Bill Rhoda told the council.

Rhoda’s firm, CSL International, produced an economic impact study that estimated a new stadium would generate $249 million in economic activity annually and bring $12.3 million in tax revenues to the city, Santa Clara County and the state.

Jed York, scion of 49ers co-owners Denise DeBartolo York and John York, told the council that the estimates were likely on the low side.

“The assumptions that we’re using are conservative,” York said.

Several council members were interested in the study’s assumption that the stadium would host a Super Bowl every 10 years.

“The Super Bowl once every 10 years, that seems very conservative to me,” Councilman Dominic Caserta said.

Rhoda said a Santa Clara stadium would be competing with many cities with newly constructed or soon to be completed stadiums such as Dallas, Indianapolis and Detroit. However, Rhoda said the region’s mild climate and the many attractions of the San Francisco Bay Area make it likely that a Santa Clara stadium would join the short list of cities that are regular Super Bowl sites

“When you start thinking about Super Bowls this is a location that would compete very favorably with Arizona, Miami, New Orleans,” Rhoda said.

One stadium opponent, former Santa Clara planning commissioner Byron Fleck, challenged the basic assumptions of the study saying that multiple economists have found that stadiums do not have any impact on a city’s economic development.

“These projects are losers,” Fleck said.

The council members did not take any action on the stadium project Tuesday night other than to refer the CSL study to the city staff for analysis. The 49ers are scheduled to present their full stadium proposal, including how the team plans to finance the project, on April 24.

Bay City News

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Citigroup to cut 17,000 jobs, take $1.38 billion charge

EXPENSE REDUCTION AIMED AT SAVING $2.1 BILLION, IMPROVING PROFIT MARGINS

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By David Weidner and Murray Coleman

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Citigroup Inc., which failed to fully capitalize on one of the most prosperous eras for U.S. financial services companies in recent years, today announced a sweeping expense-reduction that includes 17,000 job cuts and a $1.38 billion pre-tax charge.

The financial-services giant also will take an additional $600 million in pre-tax charges spread during the last three quarters of the year. Citigroup, which is thinning its back-office ranks and moving another 9,500 jobs to lower-cost locations, said the cuts are aimed at reducing $2.1 billion in expenses.

“This effort should enhance our capacity to grow,” said Robert Druskin, who was named chief operating officer in December and given a mandate to find waste. “There will be very little impact on client-facing functions, other than additional efforts to enhance our service levels.”

Citigroup said the expense reductions will lead to savings of $3.7 billion in 2008 and $4.6 billion in 2009. The numbers of job cuts come in the middle to high end of analysts’ expectations. Druskin said the company included cost cuts when it created a budget for 2007, but the budget did not included the charges. He also said about $1 billion of the first-quarter charge is severance costs.

The company also plans to do a better job of buying the supplies and services it needs. Citi said it will centralize 80% of its purchases by year-end and nearly 100% by the end of 2009. About 65% of the company’s purchases are centralized.

“That’s the kind of philisophical change we’re looking at enforcing throughout the company,” Druskin said.

The bulk of savings, about $1.05 billion in 2007, will come from Citigroup’s global consumer and markets and banking groups. Those units will also see $1.725 billion in annual savings in 2008 and 2009.

Citigroup expects $375 million in its technology and corporate operations groups by yearend. The bank will save $550 million each year through 2009 in technology department.

INVESTORS FACE DILEMMA

On the one hand, the pioneering international banking conglomerate retains some of the industry’s most prized assets. Its breadth and depth across the world is still considered top-echelon, if not top-dog, among U.S. bankers seeking to expand overseas.

And aiding that view is a building rampage of sorts undertaken by Citigroup.

The flip-side is that some of its key groups have come under criticism for neglect by past management teams. As a result, many domestic consumer brands have lost some of their luster.

Many money managers argue that Citigroup can no longer be considered on the cutting edge and a pioneer in world banking circles as they were for nearly three decades.

“They’ve got an advantage in terms of scale,” sid David Kovacs, co-manager at Turner Large Cap Value Fund.

“But the problem is that when you get to a certain size, it’s difficult to keep up past growth rates. So they’ve lost a lot of their nimbleness.”

Turner Large Cap Value Fund sold its long-term holdings in Citigroup last month after subprime loan scares rippled through financials. Although less exposed to types of loans at the heat of the controversy, Kovacs says the behemoth’s sheer size could hamper its ability to skate past any future bad news in subprime and related markets.

“Citigroup has grown to a point where creating a new product with enough impact to boost its entire business is much more difficult,” Kovacs said. “It has to take smaller bites out of the market these days.”

Even incremental steps can add up in a blue-chip with a market capitalization of $255.2 billion. Embattled Chief Executive Charles Prince has been trying to keep up with the company’s tradition of innovation.

But expenses have been rising faster than revenue. As a result, Chief Financial Officer Robert Druskin was tasked in December to find as much as $1 billion in cost savings within the financial giant.

“Tangible results should show up later this year in their cost-cutting program,” Lehman Brothers analyst Jason Goldberg said.

“In addition, we should start to see returns grow from investments they’ve made over the last several years in building new branches all over the world to bulking up in investment banking.”

But any impact from such moves is still at least several quarters away, he added.

“Positive operating leverage with revenue growing faster than expenses is big on investors’ minds right now, particularly considering what’s going on in the subprime mortgage arena,” Goldberg said.

Citigroup has a subprime portfolio of more than $40 billion, he added, or about 6% of its total. “It’s bigger than any other bank’s exposure to that market on a percentage basis,” Goldberg said.

Lehman Brothers has a buy rating on the stock and it has worked with Citigroup in the past.

In his most recent research note last week, Goldberg wrote that Citigroup would need to pare some 80,000 positions just to get to its competitors’ level in terms of sales per employee.

Even with drastic cuts and more revamping of operations, some investors say they won’t be impressed.

“They talk about cost-cutting and strategic planning as if they’re coming up with some huge revelations,” said Jim Huguet, chief executive at money manager Great Companies Inc. “But well-managed businesses do that just like breathing. They realize managing costs and growing revenue aren’t luxuries.”

The Tampa-based Huguet still owns some shares of Citigroup in his institutional and high net-worth clients’ portfolios. LM ) , Huguet says his firm’s money managers sold most of its holdings in the company.

“Asset management, when run properly, is a very profitable business and one that’s key to expanding the consumer side of the business,” he said. “It presents complexities to Citigroup’s current management. But some of its key rivals have been able to work through those issues.”

Prince, whose background includes serving as a lawyer, was a good choice when Citigroup was undergoing compliance issues three years ago, argues Craig Woker, a Morningstar Inc. analyst.

“He has made Citigroup much more focused on its core businesses and less inclined to try to hit home runs all the time,” he said. “But putting in-place more long-term strategic planning isn’t enough anymore. A lot of big investors are fed up and want immediate results.”

Prince needs to produce much healthier returns, Woker says. “He’s on a fairly short rope,” the Chicago-based analyst said. “He’s probably got 12-18 months to really perform. At least he should be hoping to get that much time.”

The 17 analysts polled by Thomson Financial have a consensus estimate for Citigroup’s 2007 first quarter earnings of $1.09 per share. That would be down from the same period a year ago when it earned $1.11 a share.

The company’s net income is expected to also fall slightly to $5.5 billion in first quarter 2007 from $5.6 billion a year ago.

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Pelosi message to Syria ‘consistent with Bush message’

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Speaker Nancy Pelosi

By Julia Cheever

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in San Francisco Tuesday that “there was no difference between the message the President is setting forth and the message of our group” during her recent visit to Syria.

Pelosi said at a news conference at the Federal Building, “We left our differences at home. We are unified as a country.”

The congresswoman, a San Francisco Democrat, led a congressional delegation of four Democratic committee chairmen, another Democrat who is the House’s only Muslim and one Republican on a trip to the Middle East last week.

The group visited Israel, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

Pelosi was criticized by some Republicans for allegedly giving Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a message that differed from President Bush’s position when she discussed an overture by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for a possible resumption of peace talks.

But the speaker said, “Our message to President Assad was a very direct one and was very consistent with President Bush’s message.”

She said the group made clear that peace talks with Syria can’t begin until that country openly takes steps to stop supporting terrorism.

One of Pelosi’s critics was Vice President Dick Cheney, who accused Pelosi of “bad behavior” in her message to Assad.

Asked about that comment, Pelosi said, “I think it’s an indication of the poverty of ideas of this administration to bring peace to the region.”

Another delegation member, Rep. Tom Lantos, D-San Mateo, noted at the news conference that three Republican congressmen visited the Syrian president three days before Pelosi’s delegation.

Lantos said of the criticism of Pelosi, “I do not know whether it is more pathetic or more hypocritical.”

Lantos, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, called the trip “a magnificent visit” by a “well-balanced delegation.”

Pelosi was asked about comments in which President Bush today invited her and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, to discuss a war spending bill in which Congress is seeking to impose timetables for troop withdrawals from Iraq. Bush has threatened to veto such a bill.

Pelosi said she and Reid were willing to talk to Bush, but not if the condition is that there can be no serious negotiations.

“The president wants a blank check and the Democrats don’t want to give it to him,” she said.

Pelosi asserted, “The American people have lost faith in President Bush’s conduct of this war.”

Bay City News

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FIELD POLL on status of illegal residents

By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

California voters continue to view illegal immigration as a serious problem, hold some rather clear views about what should be done in many areas.

When asked their views on a number of proposals being debated among Congressional leaders and the White House, large majorities support creating programs to legalize the status of illegal immigrants who have resided here for a number of years (83%), and establishing temporary worker programs to allow immigrants to work here in the future (67%).

Large majorities also back policies aimed at reducing the flow of immigrants into the country, such as increasing the number of federal agents patrolling the border (71%) and stiffening penalties on those who hire illegal immigrants (63%).

However, there is greater contentiousness about the new policy of having federal agents round up and deport illegal immigrants, with 53% in favor and 40% opposed.

In addition, opposition is growing toward the idea of building a wall along major sections of the U.S.-Mexico border, with 59% now opposed, up from 48% last year.

These are the findings from the latest Field Poll measuring California voter opinions about the issue of illegal immigration.

Illegal immigration – how serious a problem?
Most Californians continue to consider illegal immigration a serious problem, with 49% rating it very serious and 28% somewhat serious.

Almost seven in ten (68%) Republicans describe illegal immigration as very serious, significantly greater than the 40% Democrats and 35% of non-partisans who feel this way.

Voters living in Southern California outside of Los Angeles County are more likely than residents in other parts of the state to consider illegal immigration to be a very serious problem.

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Reactions to specific proposals
Six proposals dealing with illegal immigration which have been discussed and argued by state and national leaders, as well as advocates on all sides of the issue, were posed to voters in the current survey. Most can be compared to previous Field Poll surveys conducted over the past year.

There has been a consistency of opinion on four of the six proposals. For example:

• Four in five voters (83%) continue to favor creating a program allowing illegal immigrants who have been living in the U.S. for a number of years an opportunity to stay in this country and apply for citizenship if they have a job, learn English and pay back taxes. This is similar to 80 support for this approach found last July, and up slightly from 75% who felt this way last April.

• Two-thirds of voters (67%) support creating temporary worker programs for illegal immigrants that would legalize their status and allow future immigrants to work in this country, up slightly from 60% support last April.

• Seven in ten (71%) favor increasing the number of federal agents patrolling the U.S.-Mexico border, identical to what was found last year.

• About two in three Californians (63%) advocate imposing stiff penalties on employers and individuals who hire illegal immigrants, similar to 60% support found in two previous 2006 surveys.

On the other hand, there is growing opposition (59%) to the idea of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. This is a significant increase from last year, when 48% were opposed and 47% were in favor.

In addition, one of the more contentious issues measured in the current survey is the new policy of federal immigration agents rounding up, detaining and deporting immigrants found to have entered the country illegally. When asked about this, a narrow majority of voters (53%) is supportive, while four in ten are opposed (40%).

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Differences between the views of white non-Hispanics and Latinos
Latinos and white non-Hispanics hold similar views on a number of the policy proposals. For example, large majorities of both groups favor creating a path to citizenship for long-time illegal residents and creating a temporary worker program that would legalize their status and allow future immigrants to work here.

In addition, fewer than four in ten white non-Hispanics (39%) and Latinos (30%) back the idea of building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Latinos (54%) are somewhat less supportive than white non-Hispanics (75%) about increasing the number of federal agents patrolling the border, although majorities of both groups are in favor.

However, Latino and white non-Hispanic voters hold opposite positions on two other policies stiffening penalties on those who hire illegal immigrants and rounding up, detaining and deporting illegal immigrants. While majorities of white non-Hispanics (68% and 58%, respectively) favor each of these policies, among Latinos just 43% and 35% are supportive.

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See Related: FIELD REPORT

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At the San Francisco Ballet – Programs 6 continues with NIGHT, ON COMMON GROUND, and RODEO

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By Seán Martinfield
Sentinel Fine Arts Critic
Copyright © 2007 San Francisco Sentinel

Choreographer Julia Adam’s NIGHT is a fantastically imagined dreamscape. The soundscape consists of selections from the provocative “Night Grooves” by composer Matthew Pierce – including beautiful renditions of Present, Office Parks and Strip Malls, African Smile, Salvadori Dali. The music can be sampled on-line and an order placed for the next issue of CDs. Onstage, the dancers’ translation of kinetic energy into suggestions of pursuit and resistance, desire and invasion was engaging and perplexing.

San Francisco Ballet premiered NIGHT in 2000. The 30-minute ballet draws-out imagery and bursts of energy common to everyone’s dream life – those odd projections of personalities and events, the three-dimensional embodiments of combined symbols and ideas – all drifting through and lifting the mind during what should be the lull of sleep. There is never a choice of subject, but sometimes an episode to settle upon – such as the momentary whim of an armchair channel-flipper. In the midst of such visions there can be a subjective choice to join it, judge it, jettison from it, or just hang-out until it’s over….

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Adams’ NIGHT. Images by Erik Tomasson

Marking its world premiere, Helgi Tomasson’s ON COMMON GROUND utilizes nine movements from composer Ned Rorem’s String Quartet No. 4. While not a “dream”, the production does inspire a fantastical appreciation of San Francisco Ballet – its amazingly diverse company of dancers, the daring use of music never intended as dance, the frequent absence of scenery and the filling up of the cavernous space with brilliant choreography, and the incomparable talents of conductor Martin West and the Ballet Orchestra. As with the SF Symphony, jeweled solo opportunities are provided to its individual members. Cello soloist David Kadarauch lavished a fiery temperament through the rich edginess of Rorem’s point / counter-point composition. Displayed in simple athletic-type attire designed by Sandra Woodall, under the warm lighting designs of Michael Mazzola – the awesome physical strength and artistic sharpness of this uncommonly sensual collection of Classically grounded dancers invites the highest levels of artistic appreciation.

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DAVIT KARAPETYAN and LORENA FEIJOO, TINA LeBLANC and JOAN BOADA – On Common Ground. Photo by Erik Tomasson

The perennial favorite, Agnes de Mille’s RODEO, lassoes dreams and fantasies into an always welcoming round-up of trysts, trials and traditions. In the Opening Night Spotlight as “The Cowgirl” was Kristin Long, a member of San Francisco Ballet since 1990. Shining-in from the Corps de Ballet – tall and lovely Pauli Magierek as “The Farmer’s Daughter” was swept away by the charms of “Wrangler” Aaron Orza (a native of Walnut Creek and possible nominee for the Clint Walker Look-A-Like Contest).

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(Left) Pauli Magierek and Aaron Orza, (Right) Garen Scribner, Kristin Long, and Rory Hohenstein. Photos by Erik Tomasson

But Rory Hohenstein was MVP throughout the evening, appearing prominently in all three works. Promoted to Soloist in 2006, Mr. Hohenstein captured just about everybody’s heart with his stunning work in last season’s ELEMENTAL BRUBECK. In this presentation of Program 6, Rory Hohenstein proves his sensuality in NIGHT, his teamwork and compatibilities through ON COMMON GROUND, and as a nimble tapper and supporting romantic lead in RODEO. An emphatic “Yes, Sir!” pierced through the bravos at his curtain call.

The following casts have been announced for this coming Friday evening and Sunday afternoon:

Friday, April 13th at 8:00 PM
NIGHT
Conductor: Gary Sheldon
Featuring: Tina LeBlanc, Ruben Martin

ON COMMON GROUND
Conductor: Martin West
Cello: David Kadarauch
Featuring: Sarah Van Patten, Tiit Helimets, Molly Smolen, Ruben Martin

RODEO
Conductor: Martin West
Featuring as –
Cowgirl: Kristin Long
Wrangler: Aaron Orza
Roper: Matthew Stewart
Rancher’s Daughter: Pauli Magierek

Sunday Matinee, April 15th at 2:00 PM
NIGHT
Conductor: Gary Sheldon
Featuring: Vanessa Zahorian, Tiit Helimets

ON COMMON GROUND
Conductor: Martin West
Cello: David Kadarauch
Featuring: Lorena Feijoo, Davit Karapetyan, Tina LeBlanc, Joan Boada

RODEO
Conductor: Martin West
Featuring as –
Cowgirl: Sarah Van Patten
Wrangler: Brett Bauer
Roper: Garrett Anderson
Rancher’s Daughter: Pauli Magierek

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RORY HOHENSTEIN – Kicks-up de Mille’s RODEO

To order tickets on-line to PROGRAM 6:

Friday, April 13th at 8:00 PM
Sunday Matinee, April 15th at 2:00 PM
Tuesday, April 17th at 8:00 PM
Saturday Matinee, April 21st at 2:00 PM
Saturday, April 21st at 8:00 PM

Check out Seán’s recent interviews and articles:
MANON LESCAUT – KDFC 102.1 and the San Francisco Opera
PASCAL MOLAT, A Stroll Through Eden/Eden
ALTAR BOYZ – In San Francisco
AFTER THE WAR – at A.C.T.
COLOR ME KUBRICK – starring John Malkovich

SUGGESTED DVD: WHY DANCE? A Film by James E. Manning

sean-martinfield-ad-mug-160-pixels.jpg
San Francisco Sentinel’s Fine Arts Critic Seán Martinfield is a native San Franciscan. He is a Theatre Arts Graduate from San Francisco State University, a professional singer, and well-known private vocal coach to Bay Area actors and singers of all ages and persuasions. His clients have appeared in Broadway National Tours including Wicked, Aïda, Miss Saigon, Rent, Bye Bye Birdie, in theatres and cabarets throughout the Bay Area, and are regularly featured in major City events including Diva Fest, Gay Pride, and Halloween In The Castro. As an Internet consultant in vocal development and audition preparation he has published thousands of responses to those seeking his advice concerning singing techniques, professional and academic auditions, and careers in the Performing Arts. Ask him a question on AllExperts.com . If you would like to build up your vocal performance chops and participate in the Bay Area’s rich theatrical scene, e-mail him at: seanmartinfield@att.net.

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Golden Gate Park Saturday automobile ban recycled

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Leona Fifer, left, and Thelma Cornish back suggestion a study of traffic expected when the Academy of Sciences opens in 2008 should be undertaken before closing a portion of Golden Gate Park to autmobiles on Saturdays.
Photos by Sentinel Photography Editor David Toerge

By Pat Murphy
Sentinel Editor & Publisher
Copyright © 2007 San Francisco Sentinel

Partisans move to the negotiating table Thursday in the recycled saga of whether to ban automobiles from the heart of Golden Gate Park on Saturdays.

Phil Ginsburg, a former labor negotiator and now chief-of-staff to San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, will mediate among park neighbors pitted against each other, cyclists led by the San Francisco Bike Coalition, and those concerned for park revenues and access for all to the park, Supervisor Jake McGoldrick said Monday.

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A subdued McGoldrick noted the new search for compromise during a hearing yesterday on his most recent Saturday autmobile ban legislation before the Land Use and Economic Development Committee of the Board of Supervisors.

Final recommendation of the Committee to the full Board will come at a later date.

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District 1 Supervisor Jake McGoldrick

Supervisor Sophie Maxwell chaired the three-person Commitee hearing comprised of Supervisor Gerardo Sandoval as well as McGoldrick.

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District 10 Supervisor Sophie Maxwell

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Mayor Newsom vetoed similar McGoldrick legislation last year. Voters defeated two ballot measures in 2000 which mandated Saturday park auto ban.

Under McGoldrick’s current proposal the main artery into Golden Gate Park — John F. Kennedy Drive — would be closed to cars on Saturdays. A Sunday car ban on Kennedy Drive has been in effect for 40 years.

While some neighbors insist they want a park not a parking lot, others who live close to the park fear a flood of parking congestion from those unable to drive to major park attractions.

Opening of the new Academy of Sciences, scheduled for late 2008 or early 2009, will multiply automobile flow by two and a half times, reported Jim Lazarus, Senior Vice President for Public Policy of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce. He suggsted a study of traffic impact by Academy opening is necessary prior to Saturday closure.

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Jim Lazarus

Opponents to Saturday closure include a coalition of seniors and the disabled as well as the Coalition for San Francisco Neighborhoods, the Sunset District Neighborhood Coalition, the District 11 Council. Some urge closure of western entrances to Golden Gate Park rather than main road Kennedy Drive.

Petitioners for McGoldrick recall from office highlight the District 1 supervisor’s leadership in Saturday closure attempts.

Proponents include park neighbors advocating a healthier neighborhood through fewer autmobiles, and bicycle enthusiasts, some raising class issues.

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MANON LESCAUT – KDFC 102.1 and the San Francisco Opera

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By Seán Martinfield
Sentinel Fine Arts Critic
Copyright © 2007 San Francisco Sentinel

San Francisco Opera and radio station Classical 102.1 KDFC have joined forces at last! On the first Sunday of every month, KDFC is broadcasting productions from the War Memorial Opera House. The program airs at 8:00 PM free of commercial interruption. Also on the bandwagon is the WFMT Radio Network in Chicago. Beginning on Saturday, October 6th at 10:30 AM, the station will feature nine works from SF Opera’s 2007 season as well as productions from Houston Grand Opera, LA Opera, and Lyric Opera of Chicago.

It has been 25 years since San Francisco Opera was broadcast on local radio. Among those fabulous presentations was the Opening Night performance of Jules Massenet’s Thaïs starring the passionate Beverly Sills as ancient Alexandria’s greatest lady of the evening. For Bay Area listeners who have been complaining about the weak signal output from the classical radio station and bemoaned the absence of classical vocals, KDFC has begun remedying the situation and gone High Definition. Check out the two HD radios available at Radio Shack – the Boston Acoustics Recepter Radio® and the Accurian Tabletop HD Radio. For those who missed the April 1st broadcast of Puccini’s MANON LESCAUT, a second opportunity is available as WFMT launches its Saturday morning series. Keeping in the spirit, I am happy to re-submit my commentary [22 November 2006] about this fabulous production.

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MANON in chains – Karita Matilla and Misha Didyk

Puccini’s MANON LESCAUT opened on Sunday afternoon at the San Francisco War Memorial Opera House. The City was amazingly warm, romantic and glamorous – so totally conducive for premiers of musical memoirs about Parisian boudoirs sprung from the passionate pen of Giacomo Puccini. The production’s grand sets and 18th Century costumes, designed by Frank Philipp Schlössmann, originated from the Lyric Opera of Chicago and were previously seen at the Houston Grand Opera – former stomping grounds of our General Director, David Gockley. Safeguarding this sumptuous production of Manon Lescaut and marking his directorial debut with the SF Opera, Olivier Tambosi proved himself a remarkable commandant over an amazing assemblage of fabulously diverse operatic talent.

The Puccini opera – one of three musical interpretations of the novel by wealthy and ordained romantic roué, Antoine François Prévost – has launched and nurtured many a soprano’s career from the stage of the San Francisco Opera. Licia Albanese and tenor Jussi Björling were teamed here in 1949; their complete 1954 recording with baritone Robert Merrill (re-issued on CD) still ranks among the finest. One of the Metropolitan Opera’s most enduring lyric sopranos, Dorothy Kirsten, sustained the role along with the composer’s other tragic heroines – Madama Butterfly, Mimi, and Tosca – over a remarkable career spanning three decades. A beautiful portrait of Miss Kirsten as Manon Lescaut hangs in the Press Room at the War Memorial Opera House. She deserves the honor – having packed the House during the Seasons of 1950, ’56 and ’67. Since then, San Francisco audiences have heard Leontyne Price, Mirella Freni, and Pilar Lorengar as the almost-cloistered French beauty turned courtesan turned condemned miscreant doomed to the barren Louisiana coast. Now it’s all about Karita Matilla. She is exquisite. Similar even in appearance to Dorothy Kirsten (who as Madama Butterfly, drew upon a personal library devoted to Japanese culture) Karita Matilla is a much-studied and dedicated actress, having worked with such acclaimed directors as Luc Bondy. He is as much at home with the brooding works of Beckett and Shakespeare as with the lyric complexities of Mozart, Verdi, and Britten. Matilla’s powerful voice has the same warmth and dramatic pathos of Price and Freni; her more lyrical touches, gentle phrasings, and sense of humor being the best evidence of an acquired theatrical know-how. Her characterization of Puccini’s excessively vain, frivolous and greedy Manon – brought to salvific redemption through the unqualified love of the Chevalier des Grieux – is totally supported by her leading man, tenor Misha Didyk. It is truly Puccini’s intention to have such a tenor stand beside such a Manon. We see and hear the likes of Mr. Didyk – we observe Manon’s rejection of him and subsequent downward spiral – and think, “Stupid girl!” The ecstatic and electric voice of the handsome and seething Ukrainian-born Misha Didyk set this afternoon’s collectivity of classical hearts aglow.

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KARITA MATILLA and MISHA DIDYK

For some, the operatic world is still reeling with the retirement of Luciano Pavarotti and the faded attractions of fellow tenors Placido Domingo and José Carreras. From this once-thriving trio, with many a role and canto in common – who can we now latch onto and adore? Make a date with the ultimate spinto tenor Misha Didyk. In addition to his Chevalier des Grieux, Misha’s portfolio includes Rudolfo in Puccini’s LA BOHEME and Alfredo in Verdi’s LA TRAVIATA. Given the urgency of time and smart planning, some of us are already imagining the teaming of Misha Didyk and Karita Matilla in productions of TOSCA, TURANDOT, THE TALES OF HOFFMANN, and (if Mr. Gockley can use his magic hook on baritone Dmitiri Hvorostovksy) an all-out mounting of Verdi’s DON CARLO. Under the magical baton of Maestro Donald Runnicles, this sunny Sunday afternoon opening of MANON LESCAUT revealed Misha Didyk advancing from the relative shadows of obscurity to the glorious position of a New Star. From this point on, Misha Didyk deserves the Center Ring.

In their respective roles as Manon’s self-serving brother and her foolishly wealthy betrayed benefactor, baritone John Hancock and bass Eric Halfvarson excel in their roles as Lescaut and Geronte. Again, fantastic voices matched by equally strong acting chops.

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ERIC HALFVARSON and JOHN HANCOCK – Negotiating the price of MANON

In the Up and Coming Department: tenor Sean Pannikar in the role of Edmondo. Readers of this column were alerted to his exceptional contributions during the Summer 2006 production of Tchaikovsky’s THE MAID OF ORLÉANS. [Note: This “Joan of Arc” is scheduled on KDFC 102.1 – Sunday, June 3 at 8 PM). Then a member of the Merola Opera Training Program, Sean Pannikar has since been appointed an Adler Fellow. Given his performance and training opportunities with the San Francisco Opera, Mr. Pannikar will one day bring the full realization of his beautiful tenor and already captivating stage presence to the role of des Grieux. As Edmondo, the young scene-stealing tenor of Act One, Mr. Pannikar’s stunning rendition of “Giovinezza è il nostro nome / la speranza è nostra iddia” (“Youth is ours with all it gladness / Hope is the goddess of our creed”) – might lead some first-time viewers of MANON LESCAUT to mistake him for the Leading Man. Sean Pannikar is already that good.

– COMING UP –

Scheduled for Sunday, May 6th at 8:00 PM – KDFC 102.1 will broadcast the recorded performance of San Francisco Opera’s RIGOLETTO. The cast includes Paolo Gavanelli (Rigoletto), Mary Dunleavy (Gilda), Giuseppe Gipali (The Duke of Mantua), and Greer Grimsley (Count Monterone)

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MARY DUNLEAVY (Gilda) signs Rigoletto Playbill for SEÁN MARTINFIELD
Photo by John Han

See Seán’s recent articles on:
PASCAL MOLAT, A Stroll Through Eden/Eden
AFTER THE WAR – at A.C.T.
ALTAR BOYZ – In San Francisco
COLOR ME KUBRICK – starring John Malkovich

sean-martinfield-ad-mug-160-pixels.jpg
San Francisco Sentinel’s Fine Arts Critic Seán Martinfield is a native San Franciscan. He is a Theatre Arts Graduate from San Francisco State University, a professional singer, and well-known private vocal coach to Bay Area actors and singers of all ages and persuasions. His clients have appeared in Broadway National Tours including Wicked, Aïda, Miss Saigon, Rent, Bye Bye Birdie, in theatres and cabarets throughout the Bay Area, and are regularly featured in major City events including Diva Fest, Gay Pride, and Halloween In The Castro. As an Internet consultant in vocal development and audition preparation he has published thousands of responses to those seeking his advice concerning singing techniques, professional and academic auditions, and careers in the Performing Arts. Ask him a question on AllExperts.com . If you would like to build up your vocal performance chops and participate in the Bay Area’s rich theatrical scene, e-mail him at: seanmartinfield@att.net.

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Photography Tips: San Francisco is beauitful in early sun, shoot early and shoot late

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By David Toerge
Sentinel Photography Editor
Copyright © 2007 San Francisco Sentinel

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SAN FRANCISCO is beautiful, especially when it is lit by the early morning sun. This Nob Hill view of the Bay Bridge from California Street is always a constant reminder to me of how lucky we are to call this place home.

Photo Tip: Shoot Early and Shoot Late
To get better results in your picture taking you might want to consider shooting early in the morning from just prior to and two hours past sunrise. Shadows will be long and the light is soft. It is a different world at that time of day and you will see things that you would normally overlook at any other time. The same is true for very late in the day as well.

****

SELECTIVE FOCUS
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Not everything that appears in the camera’s viewfinder has to be tack sharp. In fact, deciding what you want to be sharp may either make or break a good photograph.

There are several ways of achieving this but you will first of all need a camera and a lens that allows you some control. Switching the camera to auto will not yield results you are after because the point and shoot models out there try to get everything sharp.

A telephoto lens (85-105) or a similar range will do fine.

My lily photo was shot with a CanonEOS1 with a 70-200 mm 2.8 lens.

The range is of less importance than the f-stop in achieving a true selective focus photograph.

To achieve a properly exposed picture you have to balance the shutter speed and the f-stops.

The f-stop is associated with the iris of the lens and controls the amount of light that is let into the lens, meaning a larger opening. When the lens is opened wide allowing a lot of light you have to control that light using a fast shutter speed.

When you use a wide-opened lens setting like f 2.8 – very little remains in focus except the spot you have focused on.

The foreground and background will go very soft.

This technique can be effective in directing the viewer’s eye where you want them to be looking because the eye and brain will search until they find sharpness.

The two shots pictured are the exact same group of flowers.

One shot is focused on the foreground lily the second one is focused on the lily in the middle.

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See what a difference it makes.

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When David Toerge left a career in photojournalism that had spanned over twelve years and started in a new direction of commercial photography he blended the editorial style with a more corporate look. David led the way in that new style garnering many awards for his work. Communications Arts has honored him over six times. Based in San Francisco, David shoots projects on location all over the US for various corporations and a multitude of magazines and always brings back great images. He has a keen sense of light, color, and composition and delivers to his clients assignments done with passion. He has climbed bridges hundreds of feet in the air, shot in caves hundreds of feet below, dived with sharks and driven the track with Indy drivers. He has shot earthquakes and firestorms but loves walking the streets with his camera just photographing the everyday life of his city. Visit Toerge Photography at toerge.com, email david@toerge.com, or telephone 415-730-3824.

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Global Warming Assessment for Policy Makers

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Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Drafting Authors:
Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, B. Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Introduction
This Summary sets out the key policy-relevant findings of the Fourth Assessment of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The Assessment is of current scientific understanding of impacts of climate change on natural, managed and human systems, the capacity of these systems to adapt and their vulnerability1. It builds upon past IPCC assessments and incorporates new knowledge gained since the Third Assessment.

Statements in this Summary are based on chapters in the Assessment and principal sources are given at the end of each paragraph

Current knowledge about observed impacts of climate change on the natural and human environment
A full consideration of observed climate change is provided in the IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment. This part of the Summary concerns the relationship between observed climate change and recent observed changes in the natural and human environment.

The statements presented here are based largely on data sets that cover the period since 1970.

The number of studies of observed trends in the physical and biological environment and their relationship to regional climate changes has increased greatly since the Third Assessment in 2001. The quality of the data sets has also improved. There is, however, a notable lack of geographic balance in data and literature on observed changes, with marked scarcity in developing countries.

These studies have allowed a broader and more confident assessment of the relationship between observed warming and impacts than was made in the Third Assessment. That Assessment concluded that “there is high confidence3 that recent regional changes in temperature have had discernible impacts on many physical and biological systems”.

From the current Assessment we conclude the following.

Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.

With regard to changes in snow, ice and frozen ground (including permafrost) 4, there is high confidence that natural systems are affected. Examples are:

• enlargement and increased numbers of glacial lakes [1.3];

• increasing ground instability in permafrost regions, and rock avalanches in mountain region [1.3];

• changes in some Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems, including those in sea-ice biomes, and also predators high in the food chain [1.3, 4.4, 15.4].

1 For definitions, see Endbox 1.

2 Sources to statements are given in square brackets. For example, [3.3] refers to Chapter 3, Section 3. In the sourcing, F = Figure, T

3 See Endbox 2.

Based on growing evidence, there is high confidence that the following types of hydrological systems are being affected around the world:

• increased run-off and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier- and snow-fed rivers [1.3];

• warming of lakes and rivers in many regions, with effects on thermal structure and water quality [1.3].

There is very high confidence, based on more evidence from a wider range of species, that recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems, including such changes as:

• earlier timing of spring events, such as leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying [1.3];

• poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species [1.3, 8.2, 14.2].

Based on satellite observations since the early 1980s, there is high confidence that there has been a trend in many regions towards earlier ‘greening’5 of vegetation in the spring linked to longer thermal growing seasons due to recent warming. [1.3, 14.2]

There is high confidence, based on substantial new evidence, that observed changes in marine and freshwater biological systems are associated with rising water temperatures, as well as related changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation [1.3]. These include:

• shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish abundance in high-latitude oceans [1.3];

• increases in algal and zooplankton abundance in high-latitude and high-altitude lakes [1.3];

• range changes and earlier migrations of fish in rivers [1.3].

The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the ocean becoming more acidic with an average decrease in pH of 0.1 units [IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment]. However, the effects of observed ocean acidification on the marine biosphere are as yet undocumented. [1.3]

A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely 6 that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems.

Much more evidence has accumulated over the past five years to indicate that changes in many physical and biological systems are linked to anthropogenic warming. There are four sets of evidence which, taken together, support this conclusion:

1. The Working Group I Fourth Assessment concluded that most of the observed increase in the globally averaged temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

2. Of the more than 29,000 observational data series7, from 75 studies, that show significant change in many physical and biological systems, more than 89% are consistent with the direction of change expected as a response to warming. (Figure SPM-1) [1.4]

5 Measured by the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, which is a relative measure of the amount of green vegetation in an area based on satellite images.

6 See Endbox 2.

7 A subset of about 29,000 data series was selected from about 80,000 data series from 577 studies. These met the following criteria:

(1) Ending in 1990 or later; (2) spanning a period of at least 20 years; and (3) showing a significant change in either direction, as assessed in individual studies.

A global synthesis of studies in this Assessment strongly demonstrates that the spatial agreement between regions of significant warming across the globe and the locations of significant observed changes in many systems consistent with warming is very unlikely to be due solely to natural variability of temperatures or natural variability of the systems.(see Figure SPM 1) [1.4]

4 Finally, there have been several modelling studies that have linked responses in some physical and biological systems to anthropogenic warming by comparing observed responses in these systems with modelled responses in which the natural forcings (solar activity and volcanoes) and anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse gases and aerosols) are explicitly separated. Models with combined natural and anthropogenic forcings simulate observed responses significantly better than models with natural forcing only. [1.4]

Limitations and gaps prevent more complete attribution of the causes of observed system responses to anthropogenic warming. First, the available analyses are limited in the number of systems and locations considered. Second, natural temperature variability is larger at the regional than the global scale, thus affecting identification of changes due to external forcing.

Finally, at the regional scale other factors (such as land-use change, pollution, and invasive species) are influential. [1.4]

Nevertheless, the consistency between observed and modelled changes in several studies and the spatial agreement between significant regional warming and consistent impacts at the global scale is sufficient to conclude with high confidence that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems. [1.4]

Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers.

Effects of temperature increases have been documented in the following systems (medium confidence):

• effects on agricultural and forestry management at Northern Hemisphere higher latitudes, such as earlier spring planting of crops, and alterations in disturbance regimes of forests due to fires and pests [1.3];

• some aspects of human health, such as heat-related mortality in Europe, infectious disease vectors in some areas, and allergenic pollen in Northern Hemisphere high and mid-latitudes [1.3, 8.2, 8.ES];

• some human activities in the Arctic (e.g., hunting and travel over snow and ice) and in lower elevation alpine areas (such as mountain sports). [1.3]

Recent climate changes and climate variations are beginning to have effects on many other natural and human systems. However, based on the published literature, the impacts have not yet become established trends. Examples include:

• Settlements in mountain regions are at enhanced risk to glacier lake outburst floods caused by melting glaciers. Governmental institutions in some places have begun to respond by building dams and drainage works. [1.3]

• In the Sahelian region of Africa, warmer and drier conditions have led to a reduced length of growing season with detrimental effects on crops. In southern Africa, longer dry seasons and more uncertain rainfall are prompting adaptation measures. [1.3]

• Sea-level rise and human development are together contributing to losses of coastal wetlands and mangroves and increasing damage from coastal flooding in many areas. [1.3]

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Changes in physical and biological systems andsurface temperature 1970-2004

Figure SPM-1. Locations of significant observed changes in physical systems (cryosphere, hydrology, and coastal processes) and biological systems (terrestrial, marine, and freshwater biological systems), for studies ending in 1990 or later with at least 20 years of data, shown together with surface temperature changes for 1970-2004 . Data for the system changes are taken from ~75 studies (of which ~70 are new since the Third Assessment) containing around 29,000 data series, of which about 27,800 are from European studies. White regions do not contain sufficient observational climate data to estimate a temperature trend. Boxes show the significant changes for (i) continental regions: North America (NAM), Latin America (LA), Europe (EUR), Africa (AFR), Asia (AS), Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), and Polar Regions (PR) and (ii global-scale: Terrestrial (TER), Marine and Freshwater (MFW), Global (GLO) changes in physical and biological systems based on the studies available. Top row of boxes shows number of observed time series with a significant trend and bottom row shows percentage of these in which the trend is consistent with warming. [F1.8, F1.9] ]

Figure SPM-1. Locations of significant changes in observations of physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground; hydrology; and coastal processes) and biological systems (terrestrial, marine, and freshwater biological systems), are shown together with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970-2004. A subset of about 29,000 data series was selected from about 80,000 data series from 577 studies. These met the following criteria: (1) Ending in 1990 or later; (2) spanning a period of at least 20 years; and (3) showing a significant change in either direction, as assessed in individual studies. These data series are from about 75 studies (of which ~70 are new since the Third Assessment) and contain about 29,000 data series, of which about 28,000 are from European studies. White areas do not contain sufficient observational climate data to estimate a temperature trend. The 2 x 2 boxes show the total number of data series with significant changes (top row) and the percentage of those consistent with warming (bottom row) for (i) continental regions: North America (NAM), Latin America (LA), Europe (EUR), Africa (AFR), Asia (AS), Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), and Polar Regions (PR) and (ii) global-scale: Terrestrial (TER), Marine and Freshwater (MFW), and Global (GLO). The numbers of studies from the seven regional boxes (NAM, …, PR) do not add up to the global (GLO) totals because numbers from regions except Polar do not include the numbers related to Marine and Freshwater (MFR) systems. [F1.8, F1.9; Working Group I Fourth Assessment F3.9b]

C. Current knowledge about future impacts

The following is a selection of the key findings regarding projected impacts, as well as some findings on vulnerability and adaptation, in each system, sector and region for the range of (unmitigated) climate changes projected by the IPCC over this century8 judged to be relevant for people and the environment 9. The impacts frequently reflect projected changes in precipitation and other climate variables in addition to temperature, sea level and concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The magnitude and timing of impacts will vary with the amount and timing of climate change and, in some cases, the capacity to adapt. These issues are discussed further in later sections of the Summary.

More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some fields not covered in previous assessments.

Fresh water resources and their management

By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of which are presently water stressed areas. In some places and in particular seasons, changes differ from these annual figures. ** D10 [3.4]

Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk. ** N [Working Group I Fourth Assessment, 3.4]

Adaptation procedures and risk management practices for the water sector are being developed in some countries and regions that have recognised projected hydrological changes with related uncertainties. *** N [3.6]

In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives. ** N [3.4]

8 Temperature changes are expressed as the difference from the period 1980-1999. To express the change relative to the period 1850- 1899, add 0.5oC.

9 Criteria of choice: magnitude and timing of impact, confidence in the assessment, representative coverage of the system, sector and region.

10 In the Section C text, the following conventions are used: Relationship to the Third Assessment:

D Further development of a conclusion in the Third Assessment N New conclusion, not in the Third Assessment

Level of confidence in the whole statement:
*** Very high confidence
** High confidence
* Medium confidence

Ecosystems
The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, over-exploitation of resources). ** N [4.1 to 4.6]

Over the course of this century net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before midcentury and then weaken or even reverse11, thus amplifying climate change. ** [4.ES]

Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5oC. * N [4.4, T4.1]

For increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5-2.5°C and in concomitant atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, there are projected to be major changes in ecosystem structure and function, species’ ecological interactions, and species’ geographic ranges, with predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity, and ecosystem goods and services e.g., water and food supply. ** N [4.4]

The progressive acidification of oceans due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is expected to have negative impacts on marine shell forming organisms (e.g., corals) and their dependent species. * N [B4.4, 6.4]

Food, fibre and forest products

Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1-3°C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some regions. * D [5.4]

At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C), which would increase risk of hunger. * D [5.4] Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1-3°C, but above this it is projected to decrease. * D [5.4, 5.ES]

Adaptations such as altered cultivars and planting times allow low and mid- to high latitude cereal yields to be maintained at or above baseline yields for modest warming. * N [5.5]

Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes. ** D [5.4, 5.ES]

Globally, commercial timber productivity rises modestly with climate change in the short- to medium-term, with large regional variability around the global trend. * D [5.4]

Regional changes in the distribution and production of particular fish species are expected due to continued warming, with adverse effects projected for aquaculture and fisheries. ** D[5.4.6] 11

Assuming continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates and other global changes including land use changes.

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Coasts are projected to be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, due to climate change and sea-level rise and the effect will be exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures on coastal areas. *** D [6.3, 6.4]

Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals. *** D [B6.1, 6.4]

Coastal wetlands including salt marshes and mangroves are projected to be negatively affected by sea-level rise especially where they are constrained on their landward side, or starved of sediment. *** D [6.4]

Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Those densely-populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively low, and which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at risk. The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable. *** D [6.4]

Adaptation for coastal regions will be more challenging in developing countries than developed countries due to constraints on adaptive capacity. ** D [6.4, 6.5, T6.11]

Industry, Settlement and Society

Costs and benefits of climate change for industry, settlement, and society will vary widely by location and scale. In the aggregate, however, net effects will tend to be more negative the larger the change in climate. ** N [7.4, 7.6]

The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those in coastal and river flood plains, those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources, and those in areas prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanisation is occurring. ** D [7.1, 7.3, 7.4, 7.5]

Poor communities can be especially vulnerable, in particular those concentrated in high-risk areas. They tend to have more limited adaptive capacities, and are more dependent on climate sensitive resources such as local water and food supplies. ** N [7.2, 7.4, 5.4]

Where extreme weather events become more intense and/or more frequent, the economic and social costs of those events will increase, and these increases will be substantial in the areas most directly affected. Climate change impacts spread from directly impacted areas and sectors to other areas and sectors through extensive and complex linkages. ** N [7.4, 7.5]

Health

Projected climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity, through:

• increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with implications for child growth and development;

• increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts;

• the increased burden of diarrhoeal disease;

• the increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher concentrations of ground level ozone related to climate change; and,

• the altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors. ** D [8.4, 8.ES, 8.2]

Climate change is expected to have some mixed effects, such as the decrease or increase of the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. ** D [8.4]

Studies in temperate areas12 have shown that climate change is projected to bring some benefits, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure. Overall it is expected that these benefits will be outweighed by the negative health effects of rising temperatures world-wide, especially in developing countries. ** D [8.4]

The balance of positive and negative health impacts will vary from one location to another, and will alter over time as temperatures continue to rise. Critically important will be factors that directly shape the health of populations such as education, health care, public health prevention and infrastructure and economic development. *** N [8.3]

More specific information is now available across the regions of the world concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some places not covered in previous assessments.

Africa

By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change. If coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems. ** D [9.4, 3.4, 8.2, 8.4]

Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change. The area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition in the continent. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020. ** D [9.2, 9.4, F9.4, 9.6, 8.4]

Local food supplies are projected to be negatively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in large lakes due to rising water temperatures, which may be exacerbated by continued over fishing. ** N [9.4, 5.4, 8.4]

Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5-10% of GDP.

Mangroves and coral reefs are projected to be further degraded, with additional consequences for fisheries and tourism. ** D [9.4]

New studies confirm that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity. Some adaptation to current climate variability is taking place, however, this may be insufficient for future changes in climate. ** N [9.5]

Asia

Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. * N [10.2, 10.4]

Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins is projected to decrease due to climate change which, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s. ** N [10.4.2] 12 Studies mainly in industrialised countries.

Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some mega-deltas flooding from the rivers. ** D [10.4]

Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, and economic development. ** D [10.5]

It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanization, the risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries. * N [10.4.1]

Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in hydrological cycle associated with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia. **N [10.4.5]

Australia and New Zealand

As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia and, in New Zealand, in Northland and some eastern regions. ** D [11.4]

Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically-rich site including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Other sites at risk include Kakadu wetlands, south-west Australia, sub-Antarctic islands and the alpine areas of both countries. *** D [11.4]

Ongoing coastal development and population growth in areas such as Cairns and Southeast Queensland (Australia) and Northland to Bay of Plenty (New Zealand), are projected to exacerbate risks from sea-level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. *** D [11.4, 11.6]

Production from agriculture and forestry by 2030 is projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increased drought and fire. However, in New Zealand, initial benefits to agriculture and forestry are projected in western and southern areas and close to major rivers due to a longer growing season, less frost and increased rainfall. ** N [11.4]

The region has substantial adaptive capacity due to well-developed economies and scientific and technical capabilities, but there are considerable constraints to implementation and major challenges from changes in extreme events. Natural systems have limited adaptive capacity. ** N [11.2, 11.5]

Europe

For the first time, wide ranging impacts of changes in current climate have been documented: retreating glaciers, longer growing seasons, shift of species ranges, and health impacts due to a heat wave of unprecedented magnitude. The observed changes described above are consistent with those projected for future climate change. *** N [12.2, 12.4, 12.6]

Nearly all European regions are anticipated to be negatively affected by some future impacts of climate change and these will pose challenges to many economic sectors. Climate change is expected to magnify regional differences in Europe’s natural resources and assets. Negative impacts will include increased risk of inland flash floods, and more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion (due to storminess and sealevel rise). The great majority of organisms and ecosystems will have difficulties adapting to climate change.

Mountainous areas will face glacier retreat, reduced snow cover and winter tourism, and extensive species losses (in some areas up to 60% under high emission scenarios by 2080). *** D [12.4]

In Southern Europe, climate change is projected to worsen conditions (high temperatures and drought) in a region already vulnerable to climate variability, and to reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism, and in general, crop productivity. It is also projected to increase health risks due to heat waves and the frequency of wildfires. ** D [12.2, 12.4, 12.7]

In Central and Eastern Europe, summer precipitation is projected to decrease, causing higher water stress.

Health risks due to heat waves are projected to increase. Forest productivity is expected to decline and the frequency of peatland fires to increase. ** D [12.4]

In Northern Europe, climate change is initially projected to bring mixed effects, including some benefits such as reduced demand for heating, increased crop yields and increased forest growth.

However, as climate change continues, its negative impacts (including more frequent winter floods, endangered ecosystems and increasing ground instability) are likely to outweigh its benefits. ** D [12.4]

Adaptation to climate change is likely to benefit from experience gained in reaction to extreme climate events, by specifically implementing proactive climate change risk management adaptation plans. *** N [12.5]

Latin America

By mid-century, increases in temperature and associated decreases in soil water are projected to lead to gradual replacement of tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia. Semi-arid vegetation will tend to be replaced by arid-land vegetation. There is a risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in many areas of tropical Latin America. ** D [13.4]

In drier areas, climate change is expected to lead to salinisation and desertification of agricultural land.

Productivity of some important crops are projected to decrease and livestock productivity to decline, with adverse consequences for food security. In temperate zones soybean yields are projected to increase. ** N [13.4, 13.7]

Sea-level rise is projected to cause increased risk of flooding in low-lying areas. ** N [13.4, 13.7] Increases in sea surface temperature due to climate change are projected to have adverse effects on Mesoamerican coral reefs, and cause shifts in the location of south-east Pacific fish stocks. ** N [13.4]

Changes in precipitation patterns and the disappearance of glaciers are projected to significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation. ** D [13.4]

Some countries have made efforts to adapt, particularly through conservation of key ecosystems, early warning systems, risk management in agriculture, strategies for flood drought and coastal management, and disease surveillance systems. However, the effectiveness of these efforts is outweighed by: lack of basic information, observation and monitoring systems; lack of capacity building and appropriate political, institutional and technological frameworks; low income; and settlements in vulnerable areas, among others. ** D [13.2]

North America

Moderate climate change in the early decades of the century is projected to increase aggregate yields of rainfed agriculture by 5-20%, but with important variability among regions. Major challenges are projected for crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or depend on highly utilised water resources. ** D [14.4]

Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack, more winter flooding, and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources. *** D [14.4, B14.2]

Disturbances from pests, diseases, and fire are projected to have increasing impacts on forests, with an extended period of high fire risk and large increases in area burned. *** N [14.4, B14.1]

Cities that currently experience heat waves are expected to be further challenged by an increased number, intensity and duration of heat waves during the course of the century, with potential for adverse health impacts. The growing number of the elderly population is most at risk. *** D [14.4]

Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by climate change impacts interacting with development and pollution. Population growth and the rising value of infrastructure in coastal areas increase vulnerability to climate variability and future climate change, with losses projected to increase if the intensity of tropical storms increases. Current adaptation is uneven and readiness for increased exposure is low. *** N [14.4]

Polar Regions

In the Polar Regions, the main projected biophysical effects are reductions in thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in natural ecosystems with detrimental effects on many organisms including migratory birds, mammals and higher predators. In the Arctic, additional impacts include reductions in the extent of sea ice and permafrost, increased coastal erosion, and an increase in the depth of permafrost seasonal thawing. ** D [15.3, 15.4, 15.2]

For Arctic human communities, impacts, particularly resulting from changing snow and ice conditions, are projected to be mixed. Detrimental impacts would include those on infrastructure and traditional indigenous ways of life. ** D [15.4]

Beneficial impacts would include reduced heating costs and more navigable northern sea routes. * D [15.4]

In both polar regions, specific ecosystems and habitats are projected to be vulnerable, as climatic barriers to species’ invasions are lowered. ** D [15.6, 15.4]

Already Arctic human communities are adapting to climate change, but both external and internal stressors challenge their adaptive capacities. Despite the resilience shown historically by Arctic indigenous communities, some traditional ways of life are being threatened and substantial investments are needed to adapt or re-locate physical structures and communities. ** D [15.ES]

Small Islands

Small islands, whether located in the Tropics or higher latitudes, have characteristics which make them especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme events. *** [16.1, 16.5]

Deterioration in coastal conditions, for example through erosion of beaches and coral bleaching, is expected to affect local resources, e.g., fisheries, and reduce the value of these destinations for tourism. ** D [16.4]

Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities. *** D [16.4]

Climate change is projected by the mid-century to reduce water resources in many small islands, e.g., in the Caribbean and Pacific, to the point where they become insufficient to meet demand during low rainfall periods. *** D [16.4]

With higher temperatures, increased invasion by non-native species is expected to occur, particularly on middle and high-latitude islands. ** N [16.4]

Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of possible increases in global average temperature.

Since the IPCC Third Assessment, many additional studies, particularly in regions that previously had been little researched, have enabled a more systematic understanding of how the timing and magnitude of impacts may be affected by changes in climate and sea level associated with differing amounts and rates of change in global average temperature.

Examples of this new information are presented in Table SPM-1. Entries have been selected which are judged to be relevant for people and the environment and for which there is high confidence in the assessment13. All entries of impact are drawn from chapters of the Assessment, where more detailed information is available.

Depending on circumstances, some of these impacts could be associated with ‘key vulnerabilities’, based on a number of criteria in the literature (magnitude, timing, persistence/reversibility, the potential for adaptation, distributional aspects, likelihood and “importance” of the impacts). Assessment of potential key vulnerabilities is intended to provide information on rates and levels of climate change to help decisionmakers make appropriate responses to the risks of climate change. [19.ES]

The ‘reasons for concern’ identified in the Third Assessment remain a viable framework for considering key vulnerabilities. Recent research has updated some of the findings from the Third Assessment. [19.3.7] 13 See Endbox 2

global-warming-4.jpg
global-warming-add.jpg

Table SPM-1. Illustrative examples of global impacts projected for climate changes (and sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide where relevant) associated with different amounts of increase in global average surface temperature in the 21st century. [T20.7] The black lines link impacts, dotted arrows indicate impacts continuing with increasing temperature. Entries are placed so that the left hand side of text indicates approximate onset of a given impact.

Quantitative entries for water scarcity and flooding represent the additional impacts of climate change relative to the conditions projected across the range of SRES scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 (see Endbox 3). Adaptation to climate change is not included in these estimations. All entries are from published studies recorded in the chapters of the Assessment. Sources are given in the right hand column of the Table. Confidence levels for all statements are high.

Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate, and sea level events are very likely to change.

Since the IPCC Third Assessment, confidence has increased that some weather events and extremes will become more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense during the 21st century; and more is known about the potential effects of such changes. A selection of these is presented in Table SPM-2.

global-warming-7.jpg

Since the IPCC Third Assessment, confidence has increased that some weather events and extremes will become more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense during the 21st century; and more is known about the potential effects of such changes. A selection of these is presented in Table SPM-2.

a See Working Group I Fourth Assessment Table 3.7 for definitions

b Warming of the most extreme days and nights each year

c Extreme high sea level depends on average sea level and on regional weather systems. It is defined as the highest 1% of hourly values of observed sea level at a station for a given reference period

d In all scenarios, the projected global average sea level at 2100 is higher than in the reference period [Working Group I Fourth Assessment 10.6]. The effect of changes in regional weather systems on sea level extremes has not been assessed.

Table SPM-2. Examples of possible impacts of climate change due to changes in extreme weather and climate events, based on projections to the mid to late 21st century. These do not take into account any changes or developments in adaptive capacity. Examples of all entries are to be found in chapters in the full Assessment (see source at top of columns). The first two columns of this table are taken directly from the Working Group I SPM (Table SPM-2). The likelihood estimates in Column 2 relate to the phenomena listed in Column 1. The direction of trend and likelihood of phenomena are for IPCC SRES projections of climate change.

Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century.

Very large sea-level rises that would result from widespread deglaciation of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets imply major changes in coastlines and ecosystems, and inundation of low lying areas, with greatest effects in river deltas. Relocating populations, economic activity, and infrastructure would be costly and challenging. There is medium confidence that at least partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, would occur over a period of time ranging from centuries to millennia for a global average temperature increase of 1- 4°C (relative to 1990-2000), causing a contribution to sea level rise of 4-6 m or more. The complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet would lead to a contribution to sea-level rise of up to 7 m and about 5 m, respectively. [Working Group I Fourth Assessment 6.4, 10.7; Working Group II Fourth Assessment 19.3]

Based on climate model results, it is very unlikely that the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the North Atlantic will undergo a large abrupt transition during the 21st century.

Slowing of the MOC this century is very likely, but temperatures over the Atlantic and Europe are projected to increase nevertheless, due to global warming. Impacts of large-scale and persistent changes in the MOC are likely to include changes to marine ecosystem productivity, fisheries, ocean carbon dioxide uptake, oceanic oxygen concentrations and terrestrial vegetation. [Working Group I Fourth Assessment 10.3, 10.7; Working Group II Fourth Assessment 12.6, 19.3]

D. Current knowledge about responding to climate change

Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis.

There is growing evidence since the IPCC Third Assessment of human activity to adapt to observed and anticipated climate change. For example, climate change is considered in the design of infrastructure projects such as coastal defence in the Maldives and The Netherlands, and the Confederation Bridge in Canada.

Other examples include prevention of glacial lake outburst flooding in Nepal, and policies and strategies such as water management in Australia and government responses to heat waves in, for example, some European countries. [7.6, 8.2, 8.6, 17.ES, 17.2, 16.5, 11.5] Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.

Past emissions are estimated to involve some unavoidable warming (about a further 0.6°C by the end of the century) even if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remain at 2000 levels (see Working Group I Fourth Assessment). There are some impacts for which adaptation is the only available and appropriate response. An indication of these impacts can be seen in Table SPM-1.

A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change.

There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood.

Impacts are expected to increase with increases in global average temperature, as indicated in Table SPM-1.

Although many early impacts of climate change can be effectively addressed through adaptation, the options for successful adaptation diminish and the associated costs increase with increasing climate change. At present we do not have a clear picture of the limits to adaptation, or the cost, partly because effective adaptation measures are highly dependent on specific, geographical and climate risk factors as well as institutional, political and financial constraints. [7.6, 17.2, 17.4]

The array of potential adaptive responses available to human societies is very large, ranging from purely technological (e.g., sea defences), through behavioural (e.g., altered food and recreational choices) to managerial (e.g., altered farm practices), to policy (e.g., planning regulations). While most technologies and strategies are known and developed in some countries, the assessed literature does not indicate how effective various options14 are to fully reduce risks, particularly at higher levels of warming and related impacts, and for vulnerable groups. In addition, there are formidable environmental, economic, informational, social, attitudinal and behavioural barriers to implementation of adaptation. For developing countries, availability of resources and building adaptive capacity are particularly important. [See Sections 5 and 6 in Chapters 3- 16; also 17.2, 17.4].

However, adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change, and especially not over the long run as most impacts increase in magnitude [Table SPM 1].

14: A table of options is given in the Technical Summary

Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses.

Non-climate stresses can increase vulnerability to climate change by reducing resilience and can also reduce adaptive capacity because of resource deployment to competing needs. For example, current stresses on some coral reefs include marine pollution and chemical runoff from agriculture as well as increases in water temperature and ocean acidification. Vulnerable regions face multiple stresses that affect their exposure and sensitivity as well as their capacity to adapt. These stresses arise from, for example, current climate hazards, poverty and unequal access to resources, food insecurity, trends in economic globalisation, conflict, and incidence of disease such as HIV/AIDS. [7.4, 8.3, 17.3, 20.3] Adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone but can be integrated within, for example, water resource management, coastal defence, and disaster planning [17.2, 17.5].

Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway.

An important advance since the IPCC Third Assessment has been the completion of impacts studies for a range of different development pathways taking into account not only projected climate change but also projected social and economic changes. Most have been based on characterisations of population and income level drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). [2.4]

These studies show that the projected impacts of climate change can vary greatly due to the development pathway assumed. For example, there may be large differences in regional population, income and technological development under alternative scenarios, which are often a strong determinant of the level of vulnerability to climate change. [2.4]

To illustrate, in a number of recent studies of global impacts of climate change on food supply, risk of coastal flooding and water scarcity, the projected number of people affected is considerably greater under the A2-type scenario of development (characterised by relatively low per capita income and large population growth) than under other SRES futures. [T20.6] This difference is largely explained, not by differences in changes of climate, but by differences in vulnerability. [T6.6] This difference is largely explained, not by differences in changes of climate, but by differences in vulnerability. [T6.6]

Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways.

Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change by enhancing adaptive capacity and increasing resilience. At present, however, few plans for promoting sustainability have explicitly included either adapting to climate change impacts, or promoting adaptive capacity. [20.3]

On the other hand, it is very likely that climate change can slow the pace of progress toward sustainable development either directly through increased exposure to adverse impact or indirectly through erosion of the capacity to adapt. This point is clearly demonstrated in the sections of the sectoral and regional chapters of this report that discuss implications for sustainable development. [See Section 7 in Chapters 3-8, 20.3, 20.7] 15 The Brundtland

Commission definition of sustainable development is used in this Assessment: “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. The same definition was used by the IPCC Working Group II Third Assessment and Synthesis Reports.

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are one measure of progress towards sustainable development.

Over the next half-century, climate change could impede achievement of the MDGs. [20.7]

Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation.

A small number of impact assessments have now been completed for scenarios in which future atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are stabilised. Although these studies do not take full account of uncertainties in projected climate under stabilisation, they nevertheless provide indications of damages avoided or vulnerabilities and risks reduced for different amounts of emissions reduction. [2.4, T20.6]

A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.

Even the most stringent mitigation efforts cannot avoid further impacts of climate change in the next few decades, which makes adaptation essential, particularly in addressing impacts.

Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt. [20.7]

This suggests the value of a portfolio or mix of strategies that includes mitigation, adaptation, technological development (to enhance both adaptation and mitigation) and research (on climate science, impacts, adaptation and mitigation). Such portfolios could combine policies with incentive-based approaches, and actions at all levels from the individual citizen through to national governments and international organizations. [18.1, 18.5]

One way of increasing adaptive capacity is by introducing consideration of climate change impacts in development planning [18.7], for example, by:

• including adaptation measures in land-use planning and infrastructure design [17.2];

• including measures to reduce vulnerability in existing disaster risk reduction strategies [17.2, 20.8].

Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase.

This Assessment makes it clear that the impacts of future climate change will be mixed across regions. For increases in global mean temperature of less than 1 to 3oC above 1990 levels, some impacts are projected to produce benefits in some places and some sectors, and produce costs in other places and other sectors . It is, however, projected that some low latitude and polar regions will experience net costs even for small increases in temperature. It is very likely that all regions will experience either declines in net benefits or increases in net costs for increases in temperature greater than about 2 to 3°C [9.ES, 9.5, 10.6, T109, 15.3, 15.ES]. These observations re-confirm evidence reported in the Third Assessment that, while developing countries are expected to experience larger percentage losses, global mean losses could be 1 5% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 4oC of warming. [F20.3]

Many estimates of aggregate net economic costs of damages from climate change across the globe (i.e., the social cost of carbon (SCC), expressed in terms of future net benefits and costs that are discounted to the present) are now available. Peer-reviewed estimates of the social cost of carbon for 2005 have an average value of US$43 per tonne of carbon (tC) (i.e., US$12 per tonne of carbon dioxide) but the range around this mean is large. For example, in a survey of 100 estimates, the values ran from US$-10 per tonne of carbon (US$-3 per tonne of carbon dioxide) up to US$350/tC (US$130 per tonne of carbon dioxide) [20.6].

The large ranges of SCC are due in the large part to differences in assumptions regarding climate sensitivity, response lags, the treatment of risk and equity, economic and non-economic impacts, the inclusion of potentially catastrophic losses and discount rates. It is very likely that globally aggregated figures underestimate the damage costs because they cannot include many non-quantifiable impacts. Taken as a whole, the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time. [T20.3, 20.6, F20.4].

It is virtually certain that aggregate estimates of costs mask significant differences in impacts across sectors, regions, countries, and populations. In some locations and amongst some groups of people with high exposure, high sensitivity, and/or low adaptive capacity, net costs will be significantly larger than the global aggregate. [20.6, 20.ES, 7.4]

E. Systematic observing and research needs

Although science to provide policymakers with information about climate change impacts and adaptation potential has improved since the Third Assessment, it still leaves many important questions to be answered.

The chapters of the Working Group II report include a number of judgements about priorities for further observation and research, and this advice should be considered seriously (a list of these recommendations is given in the Technical Summary Section TS-6).

Endbox 1. Definitions of key terms

Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

This box of key definitions is exactly as used in the TAR and has been subject to prior line-by line approval by the Panel Endbox 2. Likelihood and confidence language

In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate: the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result:

Virtually certain > 99% probability of occurrence, Extremely likely > 95%, Very likely > 90%, Likely > 66%, More likely than not > 50%, Very unlikely < 10%, Extremely unlikely < 5%.

The following terms have been used to express confidence in a statement:

Very high confidence At least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct, High confidence About an 8 out of 10 chance, Medium confidence About a 5 out of 10 chance, Low confidence About a 2 out of 10 chance, Very low confidence Less than a 1 out of 10 chance.

Endbox 3. The Emission Scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)* A1.

The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies).

A2. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines.

B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.

B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

An illustrative scenario was chosen for each of the six scenario groups A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2, B1 and B2. All should be considered equally sound.

The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives, which means that no scenarios are included that explicitly assume implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or the emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol.

*This box summarizing the SRES scenarios is exactly as used in the TAR and has been subject to prior line by line approval by the Panel.

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French Medal of Honor awarded to San Francisco WWII Veteran

SAN FRANCISCO, April 6, 2007 (AFP) – France’s highest military decoration was awarded to a US World War II Army veteran on Thursday aboard a French Navy ship at port in San Francisco.

John Orofino stood at attention on the wind-chilled deck of the Frigate Prairial as French consul general Frederic Desagneaux praised his “extraordinary courage” and pinned a Medal of the Legion of Honor to his chest.

“As a French citizen, I’d like to thank you,” Prairial commander Frederic de Rupilly said, drawing a sword and holding it aloft during the ceremony.

“As a soldier, I’d like to pay tribute to you.”

Orofino, 83, was a US Army sergeant when his platoon was sent deep into German-held territory in France to perform reconnaissance for legendary US General George Patton.

Battle with Nazi troops wiped out part of Orofino’s platoon, including the ranking officers, and he took command.

Wounded during the fighting, Orofino nonetheless saved his remaining men and continued the mission, playing a key role in liberating the French city of Thionville in September of 1944, Desagneaux said while giving him the medal.

“I’d do it again,” Orofino said as Desagneaux embraced him.

France has Orofino and other brave allies in World War II to thank for its freedom, Desagneaux told those gathered on the ship.

“It is splendid,” 81-year-old French Legion veteran and career soldier Silvano Maxloum said of the honor paid to Orofino.

“France needs the United States and the United States needs France, especially the way things are now in the world.”

Created in l802 by Napoleon Bonaparte, the Legion d’Honneur is the top military award given for courageous service to France.

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Views of Congress become more favorable – Increase in already favorable impressions of Pelosi, Feinstein and Boxer

By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

By a 47% to 40% margin, California voters approve of the job that the Democrats are doing in Congress. However, by the very large margin, 70% to 19%, voters here disapprove of the performance of GOP lawmakers.

These mixed and conflicting partisan perceptions of Congress result in an overall unfavorable appraisal of the job Congress is doing overall, with 50% disapproving and 35% approving, although this is much less negative than what was found last May when 64% disapproved and just 23% approved.

Democrat Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, who became Speaker of the House in January, is viewed favorably by California voters. Currently, 48% approve of her performance, while 27% disapprove. California’s two Democratic Senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, continue to receive positive ratings by this state’s voters. Feinstein’s ratings of 61% favorable vs. 27% unfavorable are comparable to the highest ratings of her tenure. Boxer’s approval rating (54%) is also the best she has obtained as U.S. Senator.

Views of Democrats in Congress
California voters hold a more positive (47%) than negative (40%) view of the performance of Democratic members of the Congress. This view represents a reversal of a highly negative appraisal given them in August 2004, the last time The Field Poll measured this. Democratic voters are most approving (68%) of their Democratic Congressional representatives.

However, Republican voters take an entirely different view, with 65% disapproving of the Democratic officeholders.

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Views of Republicans in Congress
Republican members of Congress get a very poor rating from this state’s voters, with 70% disapproving and just 19% approving. Not only do Democrats downrate the job the Congressional Republicans are doing, but a majority of rank-and-file GOP voters (56%) also disapprove.

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Views of the Congress overall
In multiple measures over the past year, large majorities of California voters have held very negative views of the performance of Congress overall. Last May, for example, two in three (64%) disapproved of the job that Congress is doing and just 23% approved.

Now, that negative outlook has subsided somewhat, with disapproval declining to 50% and approval rising to 35%. Democrats are about evenly divided when viewing Congress as a whole (41% approving and 40% disapproving). On the other hand, Republicans continue to take a very harsh view – 62% disapproving and 26% approving.

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Ratings of House Speaker Pelosi
San Francisco Democrat Nancy Pelosi was first elected to Congress in 1987 and has won successive terms since then. In 2003 she became the House Minority Leader. At that time The Field Poll found that pluralities of this state’s voters approved of the job that she was doing.

Now, since her elevation to Speaker of the House last January, her job ratings have improved. Currently, about half (48%) of voters have a positive view of her performance, while 27% rate her negatively.

Views of Pelosi are highly partisan, with 64% of Democrats holding a favorable view, while Republicans view her negatively by greater than two to one (53% to 24%) margin. Voters in the San Francisco Bay region are particularly impressed with Pelosi’s performance as House Speaker and rate her favorably, 61% to 18%.

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See Related: FIELD REPORT

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San Francisco Easter Present and Yesteryear

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April 6, 2007
San Francisco Golden Gate Park lily of the Cala variety
Photo by David Toerge
Sentinel Photography Editor

A Misplaced Love Letter
Social Prattle by Tanalus
Town Talk
San Francisco Call
April 20, 1912
Who was it that put a love letter in the contribution basket at the last Mass at Old St. Mary’s on Easter Sunday? There are only one or two who know, and they won’t tell. Suffice it that ‘twas a very charming girl of striking brunette beauty, a belle of two seasons whose name is never missing from the “among those present” at the smartest affairs and one of the catches of the town. She was so absorbed in her devotions when the contribution basket was passed that instead of the envelope containing her Easter offering she dropped in a love letter. When the good priests of the Paulist church discovered the mistake they hastily returned the letter to its envelope without reading it of course. But enough had been scanned to make it certain that it was a love letter. There’s a romance here which will probably run its happy course in due time. The young lady can have her love letter by applying for it. But will she go after it?

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Old St. Mary’s Church April 19, 1935
San Francisco Public Library Photos

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April 15, 1929
San Francisco News-Call Bulletin
SERVICE OF THANKSGIVING FOR RECENT PROGRESS IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF GRACE CATHEDRAL–Immediately following the Easter morning service in the crypt of Grace Cathedral, a special service of thanksgiving for recent progress in construction of the cathedral was held in the Chapel of Grace, first unit to be erected in the program for the completion of what will be the greatest cathedral in the west. Dean J. Wilmer Gresham is shown leading the congregation in a prayer for the completion of the Cathedral. To the left of Dean Gresham is the Rt. Rev. Edward L. Parsons, Bishop of the Episcopal diocese of California, who gave a brief address.

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Dorothie Valien posing next to a sign giving directions to 1927 Sunrise Easter Service on Mount Davidson

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March 5, 1934 Dedication of new cross on top of Mt. Davidson

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April 9, 1939
Easter Service atop Mt. Davidson

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Easter Eve 1997
Mt. Davidson
By Allen White
The Rainbow Cross was presented in 1997 and 1998 on the eve of Easter. The service was officiated by the Metropolitan Community Church of San Francisco Senior Pastor, Rev. Jim Mitulski; Bishop Yvettte Flunder, Bishop of the Church of God in Christ and Senior Pastor of Arc of Refuge in San Francisco. Sharon McNight, one of San Francisco’s most beloved and respected singers provided, what many found unforgettable, her version of “Over The Rainbow” as the cross was illuminated.

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April 22, 1930
San Francisco Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) Building

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March 25, 1959
San Francisco News-Call Bulletin
OUTSMILE GOVERNOR-It isn’t often that a governor can be outsmiled but Gov. Edmund G. Brown was beat three ways today as he chatted with pages working in the Capitol during the Easter vacation. Flanking the governor are Mary Virginia and Vincent Thomas Jr., 7 and 4, the children of Assemblyman Vincent Thomas (D-San Pedro). Behind Mary is Laurine Di Rocco, 12, who came up with the Thomas youngsters from San Pedro.

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March 19, 1951
San Francisco News-Call Bulletin
Of the thousands who thronged Macy’s last night to preview the store’s annual Easter flower show, dedicated to the Red Cross, ‘the most important guests we have here,’ in the words of Wheelock H. Bingham, president of Macy’s, were 21 hospitalized veterans of the Korean war. Sixty thousand blossoms have been moved into the windows and main floor of the store, which opened the display to the public.

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March 19, 1951
San Francisco News-Call Bulletin
Red Cross volunteers also were honor guests at last night’s ceremonies. Wishing well pictured (center) will serve as a repository for Red Cross contributions this week. Those pictured, left to right, are Garrett McEnerney II, chairman of the local Red Cross chapter; Lt. Gen. Albert C. Wedemeyer, Sixth Army commander; Hildegarde, who entertained the veterans; Mrs. William P. Roth of the Red Cross executive committee, and Wheelock Bingham, Macy’s president.

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April 3, 1950
San Francisco News-Call Bulletin
Macy’s customers today strolled through an archway of cherry blossoms and admired thousands of blooms that decked main floor counters and windows. ‘One World of Flowers’ is the theme of this year’s fifth annual Easter Week flower pageant, and the colorful blossoms represent 21 countries. This year, for the first time, there are labels under each arrangement inside the store.

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April 16, 1949
San Francisco News-Call Bulletin
What would Easter Sunday be to youngsters without bunnies, candy-filled baskets and – most important of all – colored eggs for the traditional egg hunt? If parents aren’t around to supervise the fun of pre-Easter preparations, as is the case at Edgewood Orphanage, their place must be taken by volunteers, many of whom are supplied to the agency by the community’s Volunteer Bureau. At Edgewood this week one of the volunteers, Ann Abel, took time out from her own busy schedule to superintend egg-dyeing operations.

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March 21, 1951
The McCune twins of 2680 Washington Street – Sally and Larry, aged 9 – check in with Roderick McDonald, Palace Hotel pastry cook, for an advance glimpse of the tasty Easter eggs being prepared for the hotel’s annual Easter breakfast on March 25.

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Full service for Bayview District T-Third Metro begins Saturday

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Muni Executive Director Nat Ford seen attending January limited service opening of the Muni T-Third Metro
Photo by John Han

The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency will begin full, daily rail service of the new T-Third metro line Saturday.

The rail service brings 5.1 miles of new light rail to the Muni system, as well as 317 new jobs for local neighborhoods, according to Muni spokeswoman Maggie Lynch.

Lynch said the T-Third will operate daily between Visitacion Valley and Castro stations.

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The new service, which completes a $648 million joint project undertaken by six city departments, also boasts new streetlights and enhanced streetscapes, new traffic signals, a new maintenance and operations facility, and 112 pieces of public art, according to Lynch.

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The new line is linked to a new digital traffic management system, SFgo.

Full service is also planned to begin for the 9x San Bruno bus, which will replace the 15-Third bus, Lynch reported.

A ribbon cutting ceremony and community celebration for the new Muni lines is planned for April 14.

Bay City News

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California Governor Schwarzenegger approval ratings rise significantly

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California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
Photo by John Han

By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

There has been a significant increase in both Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job performance and image ratings among registered voters over the past six months.

By a two to one majority (60% to 28%) state voters also view favorably the actions taken by the governor and the state legislature to move up the 2008 presidential primary from June to February. And, for the first time in six years, more voters now rate the job the state legislature is doing in a positive than negative light.

Voters also take a more optimistic view of the direction of the state, compared to what it was last year. Now, 52% say California is headed in the right direction and 38% think it is on the wrong track, a reversal from a 57% to 32% negative appraisal last May.

While two-thirds of state voters continue to believe there should be laws limiting the terms of California elected officials, by a 53% to 39% margin, likely voters in the February primary are disposed to approve an initiative to modify the state’s term limits law.

These are the highlights from the latest statewide Field Poll about matters relating to the governor, state legislature, the February primary and the proposed term limits initiative.

Trend of voter assessments of Schwarzenegger
During Schwarzenegger’s first year in office, large majorities approved of the job that he was doing. However, beginning in the spring and summer of his second year, voter assessments of the governor turned completely around, with more disapproving than approving of his performance.

Starting last July, the governor’s job performance ratings returned to positive territory. The current poll shows continuing improvement in his ratings since his re-election last November, as 60% currently approve and 29% disapprove.

There has been a similar turn-around in the governor’s favorability ratings, with 63% of voters now saying they have a generally favorable opinion of Schwarzenegger, while just 29% hold an unfavorable view.

Underlying Schwarzenegger’s improved standing is the fact that majorities of Democrats, Republicans and non-partisans all rate the governor’s job performance positively and have a favorable impression of him.

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Job appraisal of the state legislature
The highly negative view that California voters have displayed toward the state legislature during recent years now appears to be lessening. In Field Poll measures conducted between 2003 and the spring of last year, about twice as many voters disapproved as approved of the legislature’s performance overall. Last September that dim view started to ease somewhat. Now, a slightly larger proportion of voters (42%) approves of the job the legislature is doing as disapproves (40%).

Slim pluralities of Democrats and non-partisans approve of the state legislature’s performance, while a plurality of Republicans disapproves.

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Support for moving up the state’s presidential primary
By a greater than two to one margin (60% to 27%), voters have a favorable view of the recent action by the legislature and the Governor to move up next year’s presidential primary from June to February. Democrats and Republicans each approve by similar margins.

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Trend of voter opinion of term limits
As they have for the past ten years, about two-thirds of the state’s voters (66%) believe that the terms of elected officials in California should be limited. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans and non-partisans all feel this way.

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Early support for term limits modification
While voters continue to support the idea of limiting the terms of elected officials, these same voters indicate initial support for the proposed initiative to modify the present term limits law. An initiative proposed for the February 2008 ballot will ask voters to reduce the total years a legislator can serve in both legislative houses from 14 to 12 years, but allow legislators to serve their entire 12 years in either the Assembly or the Senate. By a 53% to 39% margin likely voters indicate their initial approval of this idea.

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Impact that the initiative’s provision allowing legislative leaders to avoid being termed out has on voter support
One consequence of the new term limits initiative is that many current legislators, including the present leaders in the Senate and Assembly, would avoid being termed out of office next year because of a provision in the new law allowing legislators to serve up to 12 years in the legislative body in which they are currently serving. After voters were informed of this, they were asked what effect this would have on their support or opposition to the initiative.

More than one half of all voters (55%) say this information has no effect on how they would vote on the term limits initiative. This compares to about one in five (22%) who say this makes them less inclined to support the initiative, while almost as many (19%) say it makes them more inclined to support it.

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Trend of attitudes toward the direction of the state

Up until the spring of last year, more California voters felt that the state was seriously off on the wrong track rather than heading in the right direction. That view began to change last summer. Now, 52% of voters believe that California is headed in the right direction, while 38% feel it is on the wrong track.

Pluralities of voters across all parties now feel the state is heading in the right direction.

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See Related: FIELD REPORT

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Reality puts the lie to improved public safety

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By Tamara Barak

Authorities briefly closed a block of Market Street in downtown San Francisco this afternoon following a dispute that ended in gunfire.

There were no reported injuries in the incident, which occurred about 1:30 p.m. between Eighth and Ninth streets. All parties had fled by the time police arrived.

The scene unfolded in front of Will Haskin as he was riding in a taxi.

Haskin said two groups of young men in separate cars were involved in the incident — a white car that was pulled over to the curb and a darker car that was in the middle of Market Street.

One of the young men in the white car got out of his vehicle and began yelling at the other group, Haskin said.

The darker car tried to make a U-turn but was blocked by an F-line San Francisco Municipal Transit Agency trolley and by Haskin’s taxi, he said.

The man who got out of the white car then pulled a gun out of his pants, Haskin said, and fired five to six shots at the group in the darker car as they turned around and sped off.

The gunman then jumped on the back of his friends’ vehicle, which sped down Larkin Street with him hanging onto the trunk, Haskin said.

Market Street was crowded with pedestrians, including a family vacationing from Columbia, at the time of the shooting.

“It was really scary,” Haskin said.

San Francisco police did not immediately return calls for comment.

Bay City News

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Nominations sought for Bay Area Clean Air Awards

By Elizabeth Daley

Breathe California is accepting nominations for the 17th annual Clean Air Awards until April 20, the organization announced.

The organization works to promote lung health by finding ways of reducing air pollution.

“The Clean Air Awards this year will recognize those in the private and public sector who are working on solutions to climate change and who are going ‘above and beyond’ to make the Bay Area a model in this area,” the organization reported.

According to Breathe California, warmer temperatures associated with climate change will lead to more air pollution and lung disease.

Businesses or individuals may be nominated in seven different air improvement categories.

Nominations can be in the areas of leadership and commitment to reducing air pollution, employing green building principles and smart growth, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, developing technology that reduces air pollution, raising public awareness surrounding air quality issues, and implementing employee transportation or shuttle programs that reduce vehicle trips.

Nomination forms for candidates throughout the Bay Area can be faxed, mailed or submitted online.

Bay City News

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Bush popularity drops to new low in California

By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

President George W. Bush’s approval rating among California voters has dropped to its lowest level since he assumed office six years ago.

Just 26% of voters now approve of Bush’s performance in office. This is the lowest approval rating given by Californians to any U.S. president in the past thirty years and is close to the record low assessment given to former President Richard Nixon in August 1974, shortly before he resigned from office.

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The public’s disenchantment with Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq is the chief contributor to his low job marks, with just 24% rating the president’s handling of the war positively and 72% rating him negatively.

Majorities of California voters now hold positions diametrically opposed to those advocated by the President with respect to the war. Two-thirds (66%) oppose Bush’s decision to send more than twenty thousand additional U.S. troops to Iraq. Six in ten (59%) think the U.S. should set a specific timetable for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. And, half (50%) believe that the presence of U.S.troops in Iraq decreases the chances of bringing peace and stability to that country, while just 34% feel it increases the chances of peace.

Bush’s job rating Immediately following the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington on 9/11 Bush’s job approval in this state soared to their highest level – 74%. Since that time, there has been a steady erosion in his popularity. During late 2002 and 2003 his approval ratings dropped to roughly the 50% level. They declined further in 2004 to about the 40% level, while they dipped to roughly the 30% level in 2005 and 2006.

Last September the President’s approval rating stood at 29%. Now, his ratings have declined further to 26%. Very few Democrats (10%) and non-partisans (21%) approve of Bush’s overall performance. However, the President’s most recent decline in public standing is attributable to a loss of support among rank-and-file Republicans, with only about half (49%) now approving of Bush’s performance, down from 61% last September.

Comparing Bush’s ratings to other Presidents
All U.S. Presidents see their popularity levels go up and down in response to conditions and events during their terms. While this has been true for each of Bush’s six immediate predecessors, none has seen the near fifty-point decline in voter approval that has characterized Bush’s tenure over the past six years.

The next closest would be Bush’s father, George H.W. Bush, whose approval ratings dropped forty points from a high of 77% in April 1991 to a low of 37% sixteen months later in July 1992.

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Bush’s handling of the Iraq war
Voter assessments of Bush’s handling of the Iraq war are closely tied to his overall rating. At the start of the war four years ago, 60% of California voters approved of Bush’s conduct of the war.

That proportion has declined steadily since then to where just 24% now approve.

Just one out of eleven (9%) Democrats and one in six (16%) non-partisans approve of Bush’s Iraq war performance. Republicans are now evenly divided (47% approving and 46 disapproving), a significant decline from six months ago when 57% approved and 38% disapproved.

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Voter views about what should be done about Iraq at odds with the President’s
The issue of whether the U.S. should set a specific timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq is a contentious issue, and is currently being debated between the President and the Congress.

Both houses of the Democratically-controlled Congress recently passed bills that included specific dates next year when the U.S. would begin withdrawing troops from Iraq. Bush has vigorously opposed these actions and has vowed to veto any bills containing a timetable for withdrawal that reaches his desk.

In California a 59% majority of voters now supports the idea of setting a troop withdrawal timetable, up from 48% who felt this way last year. When asked about the President’s recent decision to send another 20,000 troops to Iraq in an attempt to secure Baghdad, 66% are opposed and just 29% are supportive.

In addition, by a 50% to 34% margin, voters in this state now believe the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq decreases rather than increases the chances of bringing peace and stability to that country.

Democrats are strongly supportive of setting a withdrawal timetable (74%), are strongly opposed to the President’s 20,000-troop surge (85%) and believe that the U.S. troop presence in Iraq decreases the chance for peace and stability (64%).

The views of non-partisans are close to those of Democrats. While a majority of Republicans continues to support Bush’s war policies, growing minorities are expressing doubts. While 58% of Republicans support the President’s decision to send an additional 20,000 troops to Baghdad, 36% are opposed. Similarly, while 57% oppose the setting of a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops, 39% of Republicans are opposed. By a two to one margin (57% to 27%) Republicans in this state feel the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq increases rather than decreases chances for bringing peace to that country.

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Bush’s handling of the economy
Voter approval of Bush’s handling of the national economy is also on the decline. At present, just 33% approve of the President’s handling of the economy, while 61% disapprove. This is the lowest assessment given Bush in this area.

Seventy-eight percent of Democrats and 70% of non-partisans now disapprove of the President’s economic job performance. By contrast, Republicans remain supportive by a 61% to 34% margin.

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U.S. on the wrong track
About two out of three (64%) Californians feel the country is now seriously off on the wrong track, while just 26% think it is heading in the right direction. This equals the very negative assessment that voters gave to the direction of the country last April
and is the most pessimistic assessment registered by The Field Poll during the past fourteen years.

The largest proportion who thought the country was on the wrong track occurred in 1992, when 82% felt this way.

Substantial majorities of Democrats (77%) and non-partisans (67%) feel the country is on the wrong track. And, in this instance, they are joined by a plurality of Republicans (46%).

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Information About The Survey
Sample Details

The findings in this report are based on a random sample survey of 1,093 registered voters statewide.

Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish March 20-31, 2007. Up to eight attempts were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize voter fatigue, some of the questions in this report were asked of a random subsample of 523 registered voters.

The sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected at random from a statewide list of registered voters in California. When drawing samples from registration-based lists, The Field Poll stratifies the sample by region and age to insure that the poll includes adequate representations of voters across each major region of the state and across different age categories. Once a voter’s name and telephone number has been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified voter. Interviews can be conducted on either the voter’s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from
the voter file. After the completion of interviewing, the results are weighted slightly to Field Poll estimates of the demographic and regional characteristics of the state’s registered voter population.

Sampling error estimates applicable to any probability-based survey depend on sample size.

According to statistical theory, 95% of the time results from findings based on the overall sample of registered voters are subject to a sampling error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, while findings from the random subsample have a sampling error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. There are other possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, the sequencing of questions, the rigo with which sampling procedures are implemented, as well as other factors.

Questions Asked

Thinking about the country overall, do you think things in the U.S. are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things are seriously off on the wrong track?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Bush is doing in handling the war in Iraq?

(ASKED OF RANDOM SUBSAMPLE)

Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Bush is doing in handling the nation’s economy? Do you favor or oppose President Bush’s recent decision to send another 20,000 troops into Iraq to try and gain control of Baghdad?

Do you think the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq increases or decreases the chances of bringing peace and stability to that country?

Do you think the U.S. should or should not set a specific timetable for when U.S. troops will be withdrawn from Iraq?

See Related: FIELD REPORT

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